Projects per year
I am an applied mathematician interested in modelling the immunology and epidemiology of infectious disease. My current projects involve developing dynamic transmission and cost-effectiveness models for blood-borne virus epidemics (namely, HCV and HIV) in both the general population and in marginalised, high-risk subpopulations such as people who inject drugs (PWID). My main project focusses on generalised HCV epidemics in lower-middle income country (LMIC) settings, for example Pakistan, to identify risk factors involved in the spread of the infection, estimate the extent of HCV-associated morbidity and mortality, and investigate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions, including prevention and treatment strategies, to reduce the burden of long-term infection and disease.
My doctoral thesis focussed on modelling the within-host dynamics of persistent infection by the human T-cell lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) to help elucidate the complex mechanisms underlying virus infection, persistence, and pathogenesis.
More generally, formulating and analysing mathematical models of infectious diseases can help offer insights into the establishment and trajectory of infection at both the immunological and epidemiological scales. A deeper understanding of these issues is a crucial step to developing effective ways to circumvent the spread of the pathogen under study and may help identify promising new intervention strategies to reduce the burden or severity of long-term infection and associated disease at both the within-host and population levels.
Another project that I am working on explores the impact of opioid substitution treatment (OST) duration on reducing drug-related poisonings (DRP) in a cohort of patients prescribed methadone or buprenorphine in the UK. In this work, I am interested in quantifying the probability of benefit of OST in stabilising or reducing DRP in patients under different treatment modalities and delivery strategies of OST regimens.
Keywords: HCV, HIV, HTLV-I, infectious disease dynamics, immunological and epidemiological models, host-virus interactions, viral persistence, virology, prevention and treatment interventions, incidence, mortality, direct-acting antivirals, opioid substitution treatment, drug-related poisonings, methadone and buprenorphine, mathematical and computational modelling, differential equations and dynamical systems, mathematical biology.
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Elucidating drivers for variations in the explosive HIV epidemics among people who inject drugs in PakistanLim, A. G., Trickey, A. J. W., Thompson, L., Emmanuel, F., Reza, T., Reynolds, R. A., Cholette, F., Melesse, D., Archibald, C., Sandstrom, P., Blanchard, J. F. & Vickerman, P. T., 23 Aug 2021, (Accepted/In press) In: Open Forum Infectious Diseases.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Evaluating the prevention benefit of HCV treatment: Modeling the SToP-C Treatment as Prevention Study in PrisonsLim, A. G., Stone, J., Hajarizadeh, B., Byrne, M., Chambers, G., Martin, N., Grebely, J., Dore, G. J., Lloyd, A. & Vickerman, P. T., 9 Jun 2021, In: Hepatology. 14 p.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-reviewOpen AccessFile4 Downloads (Pure)
Homelessness, unstable housing, and risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus acquisition among people who inject drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysisArum, C., Fraser, H., Artenie, A. A., Bivegete, S., Trickey, A., Alary, M., Astemborski, J., DeBeck, K., Dietze, P., Dumchev, K., Hayashi, K., Hellard, M., Hickman, M., Hope, V., Iversen, J., Judd, A., Kurth, A., Cherutich, P., Leclerc, P., Lim, A. G. & 20 others, , May 2021, In: Lancet Public Health. 6, 5, p. e309-e323 15 p.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-reviewOpen AccessFile8 Citations (Scopus)20 Downloads (Pure)