Projects per year
Personal profile
Research interests
My research interests centre on earthquake physics, seismic hazard assessment and earthquake resilience. I combine physical and stochastic numerical modeling of earthquake processes that I confront with seismological observations. I am particularly interested in understanding the mechanisms by which earthquakes trigger other earthquakes (e.g. in damaging earthquake cascades or fluid-injection induced seismicity) and in improving models for the probabilistic forecasting of future earthquake potential, including probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). I lead the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), which provides cyberinfrastructure for prospective and reproducible evaluations of earthquake forecast models around the globe. Current work focuses on earthquake clustering and forecasting, fault-based seismic hazard assessment in the Himalaya and Malawi, fluid-injection induced seismicity and machine-learning based approaches to earthquake seismology.
External positions
External Fellow, London Mathematical Laboratory
11 Jun 2015 → …
Structured keywords and research groupings
- Cabot Institute Natural Hazards and Disasters Research
Keywords
- earthquakes
- seismic hazards
- seismology
- probabilistic forecasting
- resilience
- Natural hazards
- Geophysics
- point processes
- reproducibility
- machine learning
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Collaborations and top research areas from the last five years
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BGS Professor & Senior Research Fellow in Geophysics.
Werner, M., Kendall, M., Holmgren, J. M. & Cremen, G. J.
1/09/14 → 28/02/25
Project: Research
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Energise – A 'digital twin' appraisal process for decarbonising community-scale heat energy
Burger, K., Rosenberg, G., Schien, D. & Werner, M.
1/04/21 → 31/03/22
Project: Research
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Research output
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A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E. & Werner, M., Mar 2017, In: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 107, 3, p. 1049-1081 33 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open AccessFile91 Citations (Scopus)590 Downloads (Pure) -
A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design
Cremen, G. & Werner, M. J., 12 Oct 2020, In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 20, 10, p. 2701-2719 19 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open AccessFile8 Citations (Scopus)87 Downloads (Pure) -
Stress transfer from opening hydraulic fractures controls the distribution of induced seismicity
Kettlety, T., Verdon, J. P., Werner, M. J. & Kendall, J. M., 1 Jan 2020, In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 125, 1, 21 p., e2019JB018794.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open AccessFile34 Citations (Scopus)96 Downloads (Pure)
Datasets
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Malawi probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM). Supplementary Files v1.1
Williams, J. (Creator), Werner, M. (Creator), Goda, K. (Creator), De Risi, R. (Creator), Wedmore, L. (Creator), Biggs, J. J. (Creator), Mdala, H. (Creator), Dulanya, Z. (Creator), Fagereng, A. (Creator), Mphepo, F. (Creator) & Chindandali, P. (Creator), Zenodo, 31 Oct 2022
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7265755, https://zenodo.org/record/7265755
Dataset
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LukeWedmore/malawi_seismogenic_source_model: Malawi Seismogenic Source Model v1.2
Williams, J. N. (Creator), Wedmore, L. N. J. (Creator), Fagereng, Å. (Creator), Werner, M. (Creator), Biggs, J. J. (Creator), Mdala, H. (Creator), Kolawole, F. (Creator), Shillington, D. J. (Creator), Dulanya, Z. (Creator), Mphepo, F. (Creator), Chindandali, P. R. N. (Creator), Wright, L. J. M. (Creator) & Scholz, C. A. (Creator), Zenodo, 30 Sept 2022
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7128668, https://zenodo.org/record/7128668
Dataset
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Global and regional long-term M4.95+ seismicity forecasts undergoing prospective evaluation
Bayona, J. A. (Creator), Savran, W. H. (Creator), Iturrieta, P. (Creator), Gerstenberger, M. C. (Creator), Marzocchi, W. (Creator) & Werner, M. (Creator), Zenodo, 16 Sept 2022
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7116221, https://zenodo.org/record/7116221
Dataset