Personal profile
Research interests
My research interests centre on earthquake physics, seismic hazard assessment and earthquake resilience. I combine physical and stochastic numerical modeling of earthquake processes that I confront with seismological observations. I am particularly interested in understanding the mechanisms by which earthquakes trigger other earthquakes (e.g. in damaging earthquake cascades or fluid-injection induced seismicity) and in improving models for the probabilistic forecasting of future earthquake potential, including probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). I lead the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), which provides cyberinfrastructure for prospective and reproducible evaluations of earthquake forecast models around the globe. Current work focuses on earthquake clustering and forecasting, fault-based seismic hazard assessment in the Himalaya and Malawi, fluid-injection induced seismicity and machine-learning based approaches to earthquake seismology.
External positions
External Fellow, London Mathematical Laboratory
11 Jun 2015 → …
Research Groups and Themes
- Cabot Institute Natural Hazards and Disasters Research
Keywords
- earthquakes
- seismic hazards
- seismology
- probabilistic forecasting
- resilience
- Natural hazards
- Geophysics
- point processes
- reproducibility
- machine learning
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Collaborations and top research areas from the last five years
Research output
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A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E. & Werner, M., Mar 2017, In: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 107, 3, p. 1049-1081 33 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open AccessFile133 Citations (Scopus)906 Downloads (Pure) -
A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design
Cremen, G. & Werner, M. J., 12 Oct 2020, In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 20, 10, p. 2701-2719 19 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open AccessFile12 Citations (Scopus)178 Downloads (Pure) -
Stress transfer from opening hydraulic fractures controls the distribution of induced seismicity
Kettlety, T., Verdon, J. P., Werner, M. J. & Kendall, J. M., 1 Jan 2020, In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 125, 1, 21 p., e2019JB018794.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open AccessFile59 Citations (Scopus)217 Downloads (Pure)
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BGS Professor & Senior Research Fellow in Geophysics.
Werner, M. (Principal Investigator), Kendall, M. (Collaborator), Holmgren, J. M. (Researcher) & Cremen, G. J. (Researcher)
1/09/14 → 28/02/27
Project: Research
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Energise – A 'digital twin' appraisal process for decarbonising community-scale heat energy
Burger, K. (Principal Investigator), Rosenberg, G. (Co-Investigator), Schien, D. (Co-Investigator) & Werner, M. (Co-Investigator)
1/04/21 → 31/03/22
Project: Research
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Datasets
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A Database of Ten Years of Prospective Next-Day Earthquake Forecasts in California from the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
Serafini, F. (Creator), Bayona, J. A. (Creator), Fabio, S. (Creator), Savran, W. (Creator), Stockman, S. (Creator), Maechling, P. J. (Creator) & Werner, M. (Creator), Zenodo, 24 Mar 2025
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15076187, https://zenodo.org/records/15076187
Dataset
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Supporting Data for pyCSEP: An Enhanced Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers
Graham, K. (Creator), Bayona, J. A. (Creator), Khawaja, A. M. (Creator), Iturrieta, P. C. (Creator), Serafini, F. (Creator), Biondini, E. (Creator), Rhoades, D. (Creator), Savran, W. (Creator), Maechling, P. (Creator), Gerstenberger, M. (Creator) & Werner, M. J. (Creator), Zenodo, 29 Apr 2024
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11082607, https://zenodo.org11082607
Dataset
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Malawi probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM). Supplementary Files v1.1
Williams, J. (Creator), Werner, M. (Creator), Goda, K. (Creator), De Risi, R. (Creator), Wedmore, L. (Creator), Biggs, J. J. (Creator), Mdala, H. (Creator), Dulanya, Z. (Creator), Fagereng, A. (Creator), Mphepo, F. (Creator) & Chindandali, P. (Creator), Zenodo, 31 Oct 2022
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7265755, https://zenodo.org/record/7265755
Dataset