Personal profile
Research interests
The main focus of my work is understanding the risks posed to society by extreme climate events and how these are being affected by climate change. I am part of the Climate Dynamics group, and this provides a vibrant environment for students and early career researchers.
One particular area of research is producing, verifying and applying physically-based simulations of the atmosphere or climate and understanding extreme atmospheric weather systems. One of my partnerships is with climateprediction.net, who use distributed computing to produce very large simulation datasets containing thousands of examples of possible weather systems, facilitating the study of extremes (you can even volunteer your own computer's time for this, if you would like). I have led the scientific development of a relatively high-resolution global atmospheric model to use in that system.
I also work on applying AI and machine learning methods to improve our climate predictions, through improving our climate simulators and post-processing of their output, thinking particularly about extreme weather. I was a Turing Fellow between 2021-3.
My past work has included fundamental large-scale atmospheric dynamics and improving climate model parameterisations, in particular studying the effects of stochastic parameterisation. My degree is in Physics.
I am also very interested in improving the ways that science is done and our working environment - a particular topic of interest at present is finding ways to improve students' and researchers' mental health - see for example this presentation (with slides here). I am a university Mental Health Champion.
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Collaborations and top research areas from the last five years
Research output
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Machine Learning Emulation of Precipitation From km-Scale UK Regional Climate Simulations Using a Diffusion Model
Addison, H. J., Kendon, E. J., Ravuri, S., Aitchison, L. & Watson, P. A. G., 3 Mar 2026, In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 18, 3, 28 p., e2025MS005140.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open Access -
Physically Coherent Machine Learning for Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Emulation
Wilkinson, H., Bates, P., Lucas, C., Quinn, N., Haigh, I. D., Collings, T. & Watson, P., 23 Feb 2026, (Submitted) European Geosciences Union.Research output: Other contribution
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Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming
Higgins, T. B., Subramanian, A. C., Watson, P. A. G. & Sparrow, S., 16 Mar 2025, In: Geophysical Research Letters. 52, 5, 8 p., e2024GL112237.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review
Open Access2 Citations (Scopus)
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Future Rainfall and Flood Extremes (FURFLEX)
Watson, P. A. G. (Principal Investigator)
1/10/24 → 30/09/28
Project: Research
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Future Rainfall and Flood Extremes (FURFLEX)
Watson, P. A. G. (Principal Investigator)
1/10/24 → 30/09/28
Project: Research, Parent
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ArctiCONNECT Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Watson, P. A. G. (Co-Investigator)
2/11/20 → 2/10/23
Project: Research
Datasets
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Met Office UKCP Local CPM precipitation ML emulator dataset, version 1.0.1
Addison, H. (Creator), Kendon, E. (Creator), Ravuri, S. (Creator), Aitchison, L. (Creator) & Watson, P. A. (Creator), Zenodo, 27 Mar 2025
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15096536, https://zenodo.org/records/15096536
Dataset
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Met Office UKCP Local CPM precipitation ML emulator dataset, version 1.0.0
Addison, H. (Creator), Kendon, E. (Creator), Ravuri, S. (Creator), Aitchison, L. (Creator) & Watson, P. A. (Creator), Zenodo, 6 Jun 2024
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11504859, https://zenodo.org/records/11504859
Dataset
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Changes in Cooling Degree Days (CDD) between the 1.5ºC and 2.0ºC global warming scenarios
Sparrow, S. N. (Creator), McCulloch, M. (Creator), Khosla, R. (Creator), Lizana, J. (Creator), Wallom, D. C. H. (Creator), Miranda, N. D. (Creator), Zachau-Walker, M. (Creator) & Watson, P. (Creator), University of Oxford, 15 Mar 2023
DOI: 10.5287/ora-9rbzrxxgz, https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:8d95c423-816c-4a4f-88b6-eb7a040cb40e
Dataset