South West Better Care Partnership: Improving hospital efficiency by forecasting demand for hospital beds

The management of resources is a challenge faced by many hospitals. Efficient allocation of beds, staff and funding has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations, particularly due to the rise in the number of people admitted as emergency cases. The increase in the number of unpredicted hospital admission has led to the cancellation of planned procedures and operations, causing worry and anxiety to patients. It also causes increased pressure on hospitals as they cope with the rescheduled procedures after periods of high demand.

Hospital computer systems containing live information relating to staffing, theatres and beds could be used to manage patient demand for hospital beds. This data can be used for forecasting emergency hospital admissions, demand for beds and theatres, and to plan elective surgery accordingly.

We aim to forecast the number of emergency admissions and hospital bed capacity, using existing local datasets. We will apply existing methodologies from economics and statistics, particularly time series methods and predictive analytics, to develop algorithms that will predict patient demand for hospital beds. We anticipate that our forecasting models will enable NHS Trusts to strategically plan resources over the long term and enable them to cope better with surges in demand.