Strengthening Access to Forecasts for Early Response in South Africa

Despite the ambitions of the UN's Early Warning for All initiative, the 2024 World Risk Poll indicates that access to early disaster warnings has not significantly improved since the 2021 poll. Globally, 70% of those who experienced a disaster received a warning, only a slight improvement from 69% in 2021. In South Africa, the data reveals a concerning trend: only 45% of people in the second lowest income quintile received advanced disaster warnings, compared to 60% in the lowest income quintile. This disparity highlights a critical issue that needs to be addressed to ensure equitable access to essential disaster warnings.

SAFER SA is working to tackle this issue, as a collaboration between the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the University of Bristol, and the UK Met Office. The project is funded by Lloyds Register Foundation and aims to identify communities in this second lowest income quintile (the “missing 20%”) to understand the barriers to accessing early warnings, and develop more effective dissemination mechanisms. This is timely, as SAWS is currently implementing an integrated multi-hazard early warning system and installing control rooms at three sites for disaster officials to receive instant warnings. Community engagement is a key component of this project. By understanding specific needs and conducting awareness campaigns in KwaZulu Natal, Limpopo, and Gauteng, the project will pilot solutions to improve access to early warnings for these communities. By co-developing solutions, the project is starting to address the trend towards a global loss of agency as highlighted by the poll.

Monitoring changes in access to early warnings throughout the project will provide valuable insights. The lessons learned will inform the operations of SAWS and could be scaled up across the southern African region, through SAWS’ role as the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, and through connecting with aligned programmes (e.g., UK FCDO Weather and Climate Information Services - WISER).