100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Alfio Alessandro Chiarenza*, Amy M Waterson, Daniela N Schmidt, Paul J Valdes, Chris Yesson, Patricia A. Holroyd, Margaret E. Collinson, Alexander J Farnsworth, David B. Nicholson, Sara Varela, Paul M. Barrett*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Highlights

•Non-marine turtles invaded higher paleolatitudes several times in the past
•Non-marine turtles reached their highest latitudes in the Cenomanian and Eocene
•Occupation of high paleolatitudes is projected at extreme emission scenarios
•Human occupation at high latitudes may prevent turtle adaptation to climate change


Summary

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5–23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)109-121.e3
Number of pages13
JournalCurrent Biology
Volume33
Issue number1
Early online date21 Dec 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 9 Jan 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
A.A.C. and S.V. were supported through the European Research Council (ERC) starting grant under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, grant agreement no. 947921, MAPAS at the Universidade de Vigo (Spain). A.A.C. was also supported by a Juan de la Cierva-formación 2020 fellowship funded by FJC2020-044836-I/MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 by the European Union “NextGenerationEU”/PRTR. Financial support was provided by NERC grant NE/J020389/1 awarded to P.M.B. D.N.S. P.J.V. and M.E.C. and a Royal Society Wolfson Merit Award to D.N.S. C.Y. is supported by funding from Research England. We would like to acknowledge the following people for useful discussions: Kenneth Johnson, Alistair McGowan, and Andy Ridgwell. We thank Ross Keister for providing the modern turtle occurrence data and Paul Grote and Marion Bamford for help with the paleobotanical literature for Thailand and Africa, respectively. Finally, we offer our sincere thanks to all of those individuals who have entered data into the Paleobiology Database. This is PBDB official publication number 444. P.M.B. D.N.S. and P.J.V. conceived the study, which was expanded and updated by A.A.C. P.J.V. D.B.N. P.A.H. and M.E.C. contributed data. A.A.C. A.M.W. P.A.H. D.N.S. P.J.V. C.Y. and S.V. analyzed the data. A.A.C. P.M.B. A.M.W. D.N.S. and P.A.H. wrote the first draft of the manuscript and interpreted the data, with further contributions from all other authors. All authors helped in the editing of the final manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests. We support inclusive, diverse, and equitable conduct of research.

Funding Information:
A.A.C. and S.V. were supported through the European Research Council (ERC) starting grant under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program , grant agreement no. 947921 , MAPAS at the Universidade de Vigo (Spain). A.A.C. was also supported by a Juan de la Cierva-formación 2020 fellowship funded by FJC2020-044836-I / MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 by the European Union “NextGenerationEU”/PRTR . Financial support was provided by NERC grant NE/J020389/1 awarded to P.M.B., D.N.S., P.J.V., and M.E.C. and a Royal Society Wolfson Merit Award to D.N.S. C.Y. is supported by funding from Research England . We would like to acknowledge the following people for useful discussions: Kenneth Johnson, Alistair McGowan, and Andy Ridgwell. We thank Ross Keister for providing the modern turtle occurrence data and Paul Grote and Marion Bamford for help with the paleobotanical literature for Thailand and Africa, respectively. Finally, we offer our sincere thanks to all of those individuals who have entered data into the Paleobiology Database. This is PBDB official publication number 444.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors

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