A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal

Jonathan Bamber, Willy Aspinall, Roger Cooke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

18 Citations (Scopus)
220 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We clarify key aspects of the evaluation, by de Vries and van de Wal (2015), of our expert elicitation paper on the contributions of ice sheet melting to sea level rise due to future global temperature rise scenarios (Bamber and Aspinall 2013), and extend the conversation with further analysis of their proposed approach for combining expert uncertainty judgments. 
We thank de Vries and van de Wal (2015: [VW15]) for their detailed consideration of Bamber and Aspinall (2013: [BA13]), and welcome this opportunity to clarify the work presented in BA13 and extend the analysis of VW15. The problem of finding a science-based quantification of uncertainty for poorly constrained physical models with large societal impacts deserves high priority in the climate community. This entails crossing discipline boundaries and will take that community outside its usual scientific comfort zone. We therefore salute the authors of VW13 for venturing into this alien terrain and welcome the opportunity to address some of the issues they raise. The present commentary discusses certain important and unique attributes of BA13’s expert weighting scheme that are misinterpreted in VW15, then addresses the Bconsensus distribution^ of VW15, their Blevel of consensus^, and the issue of lognormal fitting elicited data.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)321-328
Number of pages8
JournalClimatic Change
Volume137
Issue number3
Early online date7 Jun 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2016

Keywords

  • CREDIBLE

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