A decade of fuel poverty in England: A spatio-temporal analysis of needs-based targeting of domestic energy efficiency obligations

Like many forms of deprivation, fuel (or energy) poverty has been shown to concentrate spatially. However, there has been limited examination of its spatio-temporal dynamics, notwithstanding the evidence that prolonged periods without sufficient energy services in the home exacerbate negative welfare impacts. To better understand these dynamics, we evaluate how the distribution of relatively high levels of fuel poverty have changed over time across Local Authorities in England, based on government small area estimates. Common trajectories in fuel poverty estimates between 2010 and 2019 are identified using spatio-temporal quantitative methods, specifically sequence and cluster analysis. Relative energy affluence and relative energy deprivation are revealed to be spatially persistent and temporally entrenched. We use these findings to assess the targeting of the UK's energy efficiency obligation, the Energy Company Obligation (ECO). Energy efficiency obligations have become increasingly popular internationally over the last ten years as market-based policy instruments for addressing environmental and social goals. Yet, while significant concerns have been expressed about their utility in addressing fuel poverty, few recent studies have investigated these empirically. We show in England that the targeting of ECO has been disappointing: Local Authorities identified as experiencing entrenched energy deprivation typically receive less support compared to areas where fuel poverty levels fluctuate or are less severe. The paper thus (1) emphasises the importance of spatio-temporalities of fuel poverty, introducing an analytical approach suitable for understanding these dynamics in a range of national contexts; (2) highlights the limitations of energy efficiency obligations as tools for targeting interventions towards households in fuel poverty.