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A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence

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A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context : reassessment and retrospective on the evidence. / Risbey, James S.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Cowtan, Kevin ; Oreskes, Naomi; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Jokimäki, Ari; Foster, Grant.

In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, No. 12, 123008, 19.12.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Risbey, JS, Lewandowsky, S, Cowtan, K, Oreskes, N, Rahmstorf, S, Jokimäki, A & Foster, G 2018, 'A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, no. 12, 123008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342

APA

Risbey, J. S., Lewandowsky, S., Cowtan, K., Oreskes, N., Rahmstorf, S., Jokimäki, A., & Foster, G. (2018). A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence. Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), [123008]. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342

Vancouver

Risbey JS, Lewandowsky S, Cowtan K, Oreskes N, Rahmstorf S, Jokimäki A et al. A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence. Environmental Research Letters. 2018 Dec 19;13(12). 123008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342

Author

Risbey, James S. ; Lewandowsky, Stephan ; Cowtan, Kevin ; Oreskes, Naomi ; Rahmstorf, Stefan ; Jokimäki, Ari ; Foster, Grant. / A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context : reassessment and retrospective on the evidence. In: Environmental Research Letters. 2018 ; Vol. 13, No. 12.

Bibtex

@article{e6cd32bdc6e647ffa3c6ef7ab5f83e23,
title = "A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence",
abstract = "This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.",
author = "Risbey, {James S.} and Stephan Lewandowsky and Kevin Cowtan and Naomi Oreskes and Stefan Rahmstorf and Ari Jokim{\"a}ki and Grant Foster",
year = "2018",
month = "12",
day = "19",
doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
issn = "1748-9326",
publisher = "IOP Publishing",
number = "12",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context

T2 - reassessment and retrospective on the evidence

AU - Risbey, James S.

AU - Lewandowsky, Stephan

AU - Cowtan, Kevin

AU - Oreskes, Naomi

AU - Rahmstorf, Stefan

AU - Jokimäki, Ari

AU - Foster, Grant

PY - 2018/12/19

Y1 - 2018/12/19

N2 - This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.

AB - This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342

M3 - Article

VL - 13

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

SN - 1748-9326

IS - 12

M1 - 123008

ER -