A framework for considering uncertainty in quantitative life cycle cost estimation

Yee Mey Goh, Linda Newnes, Chris McMahon, Antony Mileham, Christiaan J J Paredis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is important information that is useful for decision making affecting complex engineering systems with extended life. Uncertainty in the estimation of LCC, especially in the early concept and definition stage, has great influence on the robustness of such decisions. Conventionally, Verification and Validation (V&V) of cost estimates is not performed, either due to economic or practical constraints. This paper presents a framework for considering uncertainties in quantitative life cycle cost estimation, focusing on the aspects that are important for understanding the discrepancies between the estimated and actual costs. Built on experience in verification and validation in engineering, the framework will be used to guide further research in this topic, where emphasis on suitable theories and models of different types of uncertainties in the estimation as well as strategies to deal with them effectively to improve decision making involving LCC will be discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference 2009, DETC2009
Pages3-13
Number of pages11
Volume8
EditionPART A
Publication statusPublished - 25 Jun 2010
Event2009 ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, DETC2009 - San Diego, CA, United States
Duration: 30 Aug 20092 Sep 2009

Conference

Conference2009 ASME International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, DETC2009
CountryUnited States
CitySan Diego, CA
Period30/08/092/09/09

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