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A global sensitivity analysis of the PlumeRise model of volcanic plumes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)54-76
Number of pages62
JournalJournal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
Volume326
Early online date2 Mar 2016
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 19 Feb 2016
DateE-pub ahead of print - 2 Mar 2016
DatePublished (current) - 15 Oct 2016

Abstract

Integral models of volcanic plumes allow predictions of plume dynamics to be made and the rapid estimation of volcanic source conditions from observations of the plume height by model inversion. Here we introduce PlumeRise, an integral model of volcanic plumes that incorporates a description of the state of the atmosphere, includes the effects of wind and the phase change of water, and has been developed as a freely available web-based tool. The model can be used to estimate the height of a volcanic plume when the source conditions are specified, or to infer the strength of the source from an observed plume height through a model inversion. The predictions of the volcanic plume dynamics produced by the model are analysed in four case studies in which the atmospheric conditions and the strength of the source are varied. A global sensitivity analysis of the model to a selection of model inputs is performed and the results are analysed using parallel coordinate plots for visualisation and variance-based sensitivity indices to quantify the sensitivity of model outputs. We find that if the atmospheric conditions do not vary widely then there is a small set of model inputs that strongly influence the model predictions. When estimating the height of the plume, the source mass flux has a controlling influence on the model prediction, while variations in the plume height strongly effect the inferred value of the source mass flux when performing inversion studies. The values taken for the entrainment coefficients have a particularly important effect on the quantitative predictions. The dependencies of the model outputs to variations in the inputs are discussed and compared to simple algebraic expressions that relate source conditions to the height of the plume.

    Research areas

  • Volcanic plumes, Integral model, Web-tool, Global sensitivity analysis

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