A long-term proxy for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic: 1996–2020

Isolde A. Glissenaar; Jack C. Landy; David G. Babb; Geoffrey J. Dawson; Stephen E.L. Howell

doi:10.5194/tc-17-3269-2023

A long-term proxy for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic: 1996–2020

Isolde A. Glissenaar^*, Jack C. Landy, David G. Babb, Geoffrey J. Dawson, Stephen E.L. Howell

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

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Abstract

This study presents a long-term winter sea ice thickness proxy product for the Canadian Arctic based on a random forest regression model – applied to ice charts and scatterometer data, trained on CryoSat-2 observations, and applying an ice type–sea ice thickness correction using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) – that provides 25 years of sea ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea, Baffin Bay, and, for the first time, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. An evaluation of the product with in situ sea ice thickness measurements shows that the presented sea ice thickness proxy product correctly estimates the magnitudes of the ice thickness and accurately captures spatial and temporal variability. The product estimates sea ice thickness within 30 to 50 cm uncertainty from the model. The sea ice thickness proxy product shows that sea ice is thinning over most of the Canadian Arctic, with a mean trend of −0.82 cm yr⁻¹ in April over the whole study area (corresponding to 21 cm thinning over the 25-year record), but that trends vary locally. The Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay show significant negative trends during all months, though with peaks in November (−2.8 cm yr⁻¹) and April (−1.5 cm yr⁻¹), respectively. The Parry Channel, which is part of the Northwest Passage and relevant for shipping, shows significant thinning in autumn. The sea ice thickness proxy product provides, for the first time, the opportunity to study long-term trends and variability in sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic, including the narrow channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	3269-3289
Number of pages	21
Journal	The Cryosphere
Volume	17
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3269-2023
Publication status	Published - 15 Aug 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research has been supported by the Framsenteret (grant no. 2551323), the Canada Research Chairs (D. Barber grant), the Canada Excellence Research Chairs, Government of Canada (D. Dahl-Jensen grant), the Research Council of Norway (grant no. 328957), and the NSERC programme.

Funding Information:
We would like to thank Vishnu Nandan and John Yackel for supplying sea ice thickness observations from Cambridge Bay in May 2016, April 2017, and May 2018. This work was funded primarily by an internal University of Bristol PGR Scholarship to Isolde A. Glissenaar. Jack C. Landy was supported by the INTERAAC project under grant no. 328957 from the Research Council of Norway and by the SUDARCO project under grant no. 2551323 from the High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment (Fram Centre). David G. Babb was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Canada Research Chair (CRC – D. Barber) and Canada Excellence Research Chair (CERC – D. Dahl-Jensen) programmes.

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Keywords

sea ice
Canadian Arctic
ice charts

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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title = "A long-term proxy for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic: 1996–2020",

abstract = "This study presents a long-term winter sea ice thickness proxy product for the Canadian Arctic based on a random forest regression model – applied to ice charts and scatterometer data, trained on CryoSat-2 observations, and applying an ice type–sea ice thickness correction using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) – that provides 25 years of sea ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea, Baffin Bay, and, for the first time, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. An evaluation of the product with in situ sea ice thickness measurements shows that the presented sea ice thickness proxy product correctly estimates the magnitudes of the ice thickness and accurately captures spatial and temporal variability. The product estimates sea ice thickness within 30 to 50 cm uncertainty from the model. The sea ice thickness proxy product shows that sea ice is thinning over most of the Canadian Arctic, with a mean trend of −0.82 cm yr−1 in April over the whole study area (corresponding to 21 cm thinning over the 25-year record), but that trends vary locally. The Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay show significant negative trends during all months, though with peaks in November (−2.8 cm yr−1) and April (−1.5 cm yr−1), respectively. The Parry Channel, which is part of the Northwest Passage and relevant for shipping, shows significant thinning in autumn. The sea ice thickness proxy product provides, for the first time, the opportunity to study long-term trends and variability in sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic, including the narrow channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.",

keywords = "sea ice, Canadian Arctic, ice charts",

author = "Glissenaar, {Isolde A.} and Landy, {Jack C.} and Babb, {David G.} and Dawson, {Geoffrey J.} and Howell, {Stephen E.L.}",

note = "Funding Information: This research has been supported by the Framsenteret (grant no. 2551323), the Canada Research Chairs (D. Barber grant), the Canada Excellence Research Chairs, Government of Canada (D. Dahl-Jensen grant), the Research Council of Norway (grant no. 328957), and the NSERC programme. Funding Information: We would like to thank Vishnu Nandan and John Yackel for supplying sea ice thickness observations from Cambridge Bay in May 2016, April 2017, and May 2018. This work was funded primarily by an internal University of Bristol PGR Scholarship to Isolde A. Glissenaar. Jack C. Landy was supported by the INTERAAC project under grant no. 328957 from the Research Council of Norway and by the SUDARCO project under grant no. 2551323 from the High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment (Fram Centre). David G. Babb was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Canada Research Chair (CRC – D. Barber) and Canada Excellence Research Chair (CERC – D. Dahl-Jensen) programmes. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Copyright: ",

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AU - Babb, David G.

AU - Dawson, Geoffrey J.

AU - Howell, Stephen E.L.

N1 - Funding Information: This research has been supported by the Framsenteret (grant no. 2551323), the Canada Research Chairs (D. Barber grant), the Canada Excellence Research Chairs, Government of Canada (D. Dahl-Jensen grant), the Research Council of Norway (grant no. 328957), and the NSERC programme. Funding Information: We would like to thank Vishnu Nandan and John Yackel for supplying sea ice thickness observations from Cambridge Bay in May 2016, April 2017, and May 2018. This work was funded primarily by an internal University of Bristol PGR Scholarship to Isolde A. Glissenaar. Jack C. Landy was supported by the INTERAAC project under grant no. 328957 from the Research Council of Norway and by the SUDARCO project under grant no. 2551323 from the High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment (Fram Centre). David G. Babb was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Canada Research Chair (CRC – D. Barber) and Canada Excellence Research Chair (CERC – D. Dahl-Jensen) programmes. Publisher Copyright: © Copyright:

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N2 - This study presents a long-term winter sea ice thickness proxy product for the Canadian Arctic based on a random forest regression model – applied to ice charts and scatterometer data, trained on CryoSat-2 observations, and applying an ice type–sea ice thickness correction using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) – that provides 25 years of sea ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea, Baffin Bay, and, for the first time, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. An evaluation of the product with in situ sea ice thickness measurements shows that the presented sea ice thickness proxy product correctly estimates the magnitudes of the ice thickness and accurately captures spatial and temporal variability. The product estimates sea ice thickness within 30 to 50 cm uncertainty from the model. The sea ice thickness proxy product shows that sea ice is thinning over most of the Canadian Arctic, with a mean trend of −0.82 cm yr−1 in April over the whole study area (corresponding to 21 cm thinning over the 25-year record), but that trends vary locally. The Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay show significant negative trends during all months, though with peaks in November (−2.8 cm yr−1) and April (−1.5 cm yr−1), respectively. The Parry Channel, which is part of the Northwest Passage and relevant for shipping, shows significant thinning in autumn. The sea ice thickness proxy product provides, for the first time, the opportunity to study long-term trends and variability in sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic, including the narrow channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

AB - This study presents a long-term winter sea ice thickness proxy product for the Canadian Arctic based on a random forest regression model – applied to ice charts and scatterometer data, trained on CryoSat-2 observations, and applying an ice type–sea ice thickness correction using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) – that provides 25 years of sea ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea, Baffin Bay, and, for the first time, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. An evaluation of the product with in situ sea ice thickness measurements shows that the presented sea ice thickness proxy product correctly estimates the magnitudes of the ice thickness and accurately captures spatial and temporal variability. The product estimates sea ice thickness within 30 to 50 cm uncertainty from the model. The sea ice thickness proxy product shows that sea ice is thinning over most of the Canadian Arctic, with a mean trend of −0.82 cm yr−1 in April over the whole study area (corresponding to 21 cm thinning over the 25-year record), but that trends vary locally. The Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay show significant negative trends during all months, though with peaks in November (−2.8 cm yr−1) and April (−1.5 cm yr−1), respectively. The Parry Channel, which is part of the Northwest Passage and relevant for shipping, shows significant thinning in autumn. The sea ice thickness proxy product provides, for the first time, the opportunity to study long-term trends and variability in sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic, including the narrow channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

KW - sea ice

KW - Canadian Arctic

KW - ice charts

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U2 - 10.5194/tc-17-3269-2023

DO - 10.5194/tc-17-3269-2023

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

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VL - 17

SP - 3269

EP - 3289

JO - The Cryosphere

JF - The Cryosphere

IS - 8

ER -

A long-term proxy for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic: 1996–2020

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Ice charts - Sea ice thickness model

A long-term record of sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic

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A long-term proxy for sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic: 1996–2020

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Ice charts - Sea ice thickness model

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A long-term record of sea ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic

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