A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability

Matthew B. Menary; Wonsun Park; Katja Lohmann; Michael Vellinga; Matthew D. Palmer; Mojib Latif; Johann H. Jungclaus

doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1172-4

A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability

Matthew B. Menary
, Wonsun Park
, Katja Lohmann
, Michael Vellinga
, Matthew D. Palmer
, Mojib Latif
, Johann H. Jungclaus

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

64 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100 years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000 years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2377-2388
Number of pages	12
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	38
Issue number	11-12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1172-4
Publication status	Published - Jun 2012

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s 7th framework programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. GA212643 (THOR: "Thermohaline Overturning—at Risk", 2008–2012) and was supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Hadley Centre Climate Programme, DECC/Defra (GA01101) and the German BMBF NORDATLANTIK project. The authors would like to thank Paul Halloran and Laura Jackson for valuable discussion.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

AMOC
Centennial variability
ITCZ
MOC
North Atlantic
Overturning

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title = "A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability",

abstract = "A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100 years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000 years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.",

keywords = "AMOC, Centennial variability, ITCZ, MOC, North Atlantic, Overturning",

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note = "Funding Information: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community{\textquoteright}s 7th framework programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. GA212643 (THOR: {"}Thermohaline Overturning—at Risk{"}, 2008–2012) and was supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Hadley Centre Climate Programme, DECC/Defra (GA01101) and the German BMBF NORDATLANTIK project. The authors would like to thank Paul Halloran and Laura Jackson for valuable discussion.",

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AU - Menary, Matthew B.

AU - Park, Wonsun

AU - Lohmann, Katja

AU - Vellinga, Michael

AU - Palmer, Matthew D.

AU - Latif, Mojib

AU - Jungclaus, Johann H.

N1 - Funding Information: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s 7th framework programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. GA212643 (THOR: "Thermohaline Overturning—at Risk", 2008–2012) and was supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Hadley Centre Climate Programme, DECC/Defra (GA01101) and the German BMBF NORDATLANTIK project. The authors would like to thank Paul Halloran and Laura Jackson for valuable discussion.

PY - 2012/6

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N2 - A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100 years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000 years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.

AB - A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100 years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000 years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.

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KW - ITCZ

KW - MOC

KW - North Atlantic

KW - Overturning

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ER -

A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

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