A real-time Global Warming Index

K. Haustein*, M. R. Allen, P. M. Forster, F. E.L. Otto, D. M. Mitchell, H. D. Matthews, D. J. Frame

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

142 Citations (Scopus)
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We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

Original languageEnglish
Article number15417
Number of pages6
JournalScientific Reports
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2017


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