A second chance elsewhere. Estimating the effect of winning (vs. being the runner-up) on future electoral prospects

Leandro M De Magalhaes, Salomo S J Hirvonen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

Abstract

The effect of being the winner (vs. being the runner-up) on winning subsequent elections has been estimated across a series of countries using regression discontinuity design. We contribute to this literature by incorporating politicians who move across constituencies. The US and the UK are our case studies. UK–US differences are not apparent when comparing estimates of the individual incumbency advantage, i.e., winning the same office in the same constituency. UK–US differences in the career advantage of winning office are almost entirely driven by the ability of the UK’s close-race runners-up to win elsewhere subsequently. Runners-up are more likely to move to safer seats. Marginal winners become locked-in to their seat. In the US, we observe negligible movement across constituencies.
Original languageEnglish
Article number102612
JournalElectoral Studies
Volume83
Early online date13 Apr 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

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© 2023 The Authors

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