A Site-specific ground-motion simulation model: Application for Vrancea earthquakes

Alin Radu*, Mircea Grigoriu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)


A large number of ground-motion time histories is required for a reliable probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis. However, insufficient ground-motion records has been a major issue in earthquake engineering even in high-seismicity areas. Stochastic and seismological ground-motion models are used to simulate time histories in order to overcome this issue. Many times these models require a large number of records for calibration, are available only for regions with a wealth of data, or fail to characterize well specific sites. The current paper introduces a novel stochastic ground-motion model that allows simulation of realistic non-stationary, non-Gaussian time histories that are statistically consistent with data even at sites with very low numbers of records. This goal is achieved by combining the prior knowledge from a seismological model, calibrated to global data, with the site-specific data within a Bayesian framework. The proposed model uses the specific barrier model as the seismological model and numerical results consistent with records from a nuclear powerplant site in Romania are presented.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)77-86
Number of pages10
JournalSoil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2018


  • Synthetic earthquakes
  • Site-specific
  • Non-stationary
  • Non-Gaussian
  • Ground-motion simulation
  • Earthquake engineering
  • Vrancea earthquakes
  • Limited data
  • Bayesian statistics


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