A system dynamics exploration of energy system behavior on St Helena island

As part of a global effort of decarbonization, understanding energy system behavior is essential. This paper develops and presents a causal loop diagram of the energy system on St Helena Island. The well-defined physical boundary of this electrical island makes it an interesting case for examining how the system might behave during decarbonization processes. This study focuses on the impact of decarbonization on carbon dioxide emissions and energy accessibility. A model is developed based on publicly available data which is used to test the strength of correlations between key variables. Where there is insufficient statistical data, the authors use behavioral relationships established in existing literature to draw connections. Six main causal loops govern the decarbonization transition through processes of: greener tourism, affordable consumer energy, affordable energy procurement, social development, economic development, and sustainable renewable energy economy. Many of these are positive re-enforcing loops, showing the positive interaction between renewable energy and social and economic development on the island.