A Systems Approach for Assessing Non Nuclear Proliferation

Lorenzo G A van Wijk, David I Blockley

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

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Nuclear nonproliferation efforts traditionally have focused on controlling the supply of proliferation-relevant technology, material, and expertise. As barriers to diffusion of all three have been lowered, there is increased acknowledgement of the need to reduce demand for such weapons, and, in cases where efforts to prevent proliferation have failed, the need to develop effective international responses. However, with few exceptions, approaches to nonproliferation have remained qualitatively the same over the last sixty years. In addition, many states whose active support is essential, view nonproliferation as primarily a U.S. issue and in some cases see U.S. military superiority as a more serious threat to their security than nuclear proliferation. Such states are often unresponsive to requests to strengthen their nonproliferation efforts. In this paper we develop a basic systems dynamics model of the process of proliferation against which nonproliferation strategies can be assessed. This basic model includes both processes of acquisition of nuclear weapons and processes that motivate states to seek nuclear weapons. Next we develop simple models of nonproliferation strategies and demonstrate how they impact the process of proliferation. We then offer observations about the relative impact of different strategies, given hypothetical initial and boundary conditions. Finally, we recommend additional work to improve the model and make it accessible to the nonproliferation community both for discussion and for testing hypotheses.
Translated title of the contributionA Systems Approach for Assessing Non Nuclear Proliferation
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the ESReDA 29th Seminar, Systems Analysis for a More Secure World
Subtitle of host publicationApplication of System Analysis and RAMS to Security of Complex Systems
EditorsGiacomo G M Cojazzi
Place of PublicationItaly
PublisherEU Report , European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Scientific and Technical Report, Ispra
Number of pages12
ISBN (Print)9279012282
Publication statusPublished - 2006

Publication series

ISSN (Print)1018-5593

Bibliographical note

Name and Venue of Conference: Systems Analysis for a More Secure World: Application of System Analysis and RAMS to Security of Complex Systems, Ispra, Italy, 25th-26th October 2005
Conference Organiser: European Safety, Reliability and Data Association
Other identifier: EUR 22112 EN


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