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Addressing the Theory Crisis in Psychology

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1596–1618
Number of pages23
JournalPsychonomic Bulletin and Review
Volume26
Issue number5
Early online date12 Sep 2019
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 1 Jul 2019
DateE-pub ahead of print - 12 Sep 2019
DatePublished (current) - Oct 2019

Abstract

A worrying number of psychological findings have turned out to not be replicable. Diagnoses of the causes of this "replication crisis", and recommendations to address it, have nearly exclusively focused on methods of data collection, analysis, and reporting. We argue that a further cause of poor replicability is the often weak logical link between theories and their empirical tests. We propose a distinction between discovery‐oriented and theory‐testing research. In discovery‐oriented research, theories do not strongly imply hypotheses by which they can be tested, but rather define a search space for the discovery of effects that would support them. Failures to find these effects do not question the theory. This endeavor necessarily engenders a high risk of Type‐I errors, that is, publication of findings that will not replicate. Theory‐testing research, by contrast, relies on theories that strongly imply hypotheses, such that disconfirmation of the hypothesis provides evidence against the theory. Theory‐testing research engenders a smaller risk of Type‐I errors. A strong link between theories and hypotheses is best achieved by formalizing theories as computational models. We critically revisit recommendations for addressing the "replication crisis", including the proposal to distinguish exploratory from confirmatory research, and the preregistration of hypotheses and analysis plans.

    Structured keywords

  • Memory

    Research areas

  • Replication, scientific Inference, Hypothesis Testing, Computational Modeling, Preregistration

Documents

Documents

  • Full-text PDF (accepted author manuscript)

    Rights statement: This is the author accepted manuscript (AAM). The final published version (version of record) is available online via Springer Nature at https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423-019-01645-2#aboutcontent . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

    Accepted author manuscript, 433 KB, PDF document

    Embargo ends: 12/09/20

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