Adiposity-Mortality Relationships in Type 2 Diabetes, Coronary Heart Disease and Cancer Subgroups in the UK Biobank, and Their Modification by Smoking.

David Jenkins, Jack Bowden, H Robinson, Navid Sattar, Ruth Loos, Martin Rutter, Matthew Sperrin

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The obesity paradox in which overweight/obesity is associated with mortality benefits is believed to be explained by confounding and reverse causality rather than by a genuine clinical benefit of excess body weight. We aimed to gain deeper insights into the paradox through analyzing mortality relationships with several adiposity measures; assessing subgroups with type 2 diabetes, with coronary heart disease (CHD), with cancer, and by smoking status; and adjusting for several confounders.

We studied the general UK Biobank population (N = 502,631) along with three subgroups of people with type 2 diabetes (n = 23,842), CHD (n = 24,268), and cancer (n = 45,790) at baseline. A range of adiposity exposures were considered, including BMI (continuous and categorical), waist circumference, body fat percentage, and waist-to-hip ratio, and the outcome was all-cause mortality. We used Cox regression models adjusted for age, smoking status, deprivation index, education, and disease history.

For BMI, the obesity paradox was observed among people with type 2 diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio for obese vs. normal BMI 0.78 [95% CI 0.65-0.95]) but not among those with CHD (1.00 [0.86-1.17]). The obesity paradox was pronounced in current smokers, absent in never smokers, and more pronounced in men than in women. For other adiposity measures, there was less evidence for an obesity paradox, yet smoking status consistently modified the adiposity-mortality relationship.

The obesity paradox was observed in people with type 2 diabetes and is heavily modified by smoking status. The results of subgroup analyses and statistical adjustments are consistent with reverse causality and confounding.
Original languageEnglish
Article numberdc172508
Number of pages9
JournalDiabetes Care
Early online date3 Jul 2018
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 3 Jul 2018


  • Obesity
  • body mass index
  • type 2 diabetes
  • coronary heart disease
  • smoking
  • mortality


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