An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Thomas Westerhold; Norbert  Marwan; Anna Joy Drury; Diederik Liebrand; Claudia Agnini; Eleni Anagnostou; James S. K.  Barnet; Steven M. Bohaty; David  De Vleeschouwer; Fabio Florindo; Thomas Frederichs; David A. Hodell; Ann Holbourn; Dick Kroon; Vittoria Lauretano; Kate Littler; Lucas J. Lourens; Mitchell Lyle; Heiko Pälike; Ursula Röhl; Jun Tian; Roy H. Wilkens; Paul A. Wilson; James C Zachos

doi:10.1126/science.aba6853

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Thomas Westerhold^*, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, James S. K. Barnet, Steven M. Bohaty, David De Vleeschouwer, Fabio Florindo, Thomas Frederichs, David A. Hodell, Ann Holbourn, Dick Kroon, Vittoria Lauretano, Kate Littler, Lucas J. Lourens, Mitchell Lyle, Heiko Pälike, Ursula RöhlJun Tian, Roy H. Wilkens, Paul A. Wilson, James C Zachos

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

940 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Much of our understanding of Earth’s past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states—Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse—are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.

Original language	English
Journal	Science
Volume	369
Issue number	6509
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba6853
Publication status	Published - 11 Sept 2020

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Westerhold, T., Marwan, N., Drury, A. J., Liebrand, D., Agnini, C., Anagnostou, E., Barnet, J. S. K., Bohaty, S. M., De Vleeschouwer, D., Florindo, F., Frederichs, T., Hodell, D. A., Holbourn, A., Kroon, D., Lauretano, V., Littler, K., Lourens, L. J., Lyle, M., Pälike, H., ... Zachos, J. C. (2020). An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years. Science, 369(6509). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba6853

@article{c2c2bf04814847369f6f304e97b1a2d8,

title = "An astronomically dated record of Earth{\textquoteright}s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years",

abstract = "Much of our understanding of Earth{\textquoteright}s past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states—Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse—are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.",

author = "Thomas Westerhold and Norbert Marwan and Drury, {Anna Joy} and Diederik Liebrand and Claudia Agnini and Eleni Anagnostou and Barnet, {James S. K.} and Bohaty, {Steven M.} and {De Vleeschouwer}, David and Fabio Florindo and Thomas Frederichs and Hodell, {David A.} and Ann Holbourn and Dick Kroon and Vittoria Lauretano and Kate Littler and Lourens, {Lucas J.} and Mitchell Lyle and Heiko P{\"a}like and Ursula R{\"o}hl and Jun Tian and Wilkens, {Roy H.} and Wilson, {Paul A.} and Zachos, {James C}",

year = "2020",

month = sep,

day = "11",

doi = "10.1126/science.aba6853",

language = "English",

volume = "369",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6509",

}

Westerhold, T, Marwan, N, Drury, AJ, Liebrand, D, Agnini, C, Anagnostou, E, Barnet, JSK, Bohaty, SM, De Vleeschouwer, D, Florindo, F, Frederichs, T, Hodell, DA, Holbourn, A, Kroon, D, Lauretano, V, Littler, K, Lourens, LJ, Lyle, M, Pälike, H, Röhl, U, Tian, J, Wilkens, RH, Wilson, PA & Zachos, JC 2020, 'An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years', Science, vol. 369, no. 6509. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba6853

TY - JOUR

T1 - An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

AU - Westerhold, Thomas

AU - Marwan, Norbert

AU - Drury, Anna Joy

AU - Liebrand, Diederik

AU - Agnini, Claudia

AU - Anagnostou, Eleni

AU - Barnet, James S. K.

AU - Bohaty, Steven M.

AU - De Vleeschouwer, David

AU - Florindo, Fabio

AU - Frederichs, Thomas

AU - Hodell, David A.

AU - Holbourn, Ann

AU - Kroon, Dick

AU - Lauretano, Vittoria

AU - Littler, Kate

AU - Lourens, Lucas J.

AU - Lyle, Mitchell

AU - Pälike, Heiko

AU - Röhl, Ursula

AU - Tian, Jun

AU - Wilkens, Roy H.

AU - Wilson, Paul A.

AU - Zachos, James C

PY - 2020/9/11

Y1 - 2020/9/11

N2 - Much of our understanding of Earth’s past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states—Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse—are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.

AB - Much of our understanding of Earth’s past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states—Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse—are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.

U2 - 10.1126/science.aba6853

DO - 10.1126/science.aba6853

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 32913105

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 369

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6509

ER -

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Abstract

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