An empirical approach to improving tidal predictions using recent real-time tide gauge data

Angela Hibbert, Samantha Jane Royston, Kevin James Horsburgh, Harry Leach, Alan Hisscott

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)

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Abstract

Harmonic tidal prediction methods are often problematic in estuaries owing to the distortion of tidal fluctuations in shallow water, causing disparity between predicted and observed sea levels. The UK National Tidal and Sea Level Facility attempted to reduce prediction errors for the short-term forecasting of High Water (HW) extremes using three alternative techniques to the Harmonic Method in the Bristol Channel, where prediction errors are relatively large. A simple procedure for correcting Harmonic Method HW predictions using recent observations (referred to as the Empirical Correction Method) proved most effective and was also successfully applied to sea-level records from 42 of the 44 UK Tide Gauge Network locations. It is to be incorporated into the operational systems of the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting Partnership to improve UK short-term sea level predictions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)40-51
JournalJournal of Operational Oceanography
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 8 Apr 2015

Keywords

  • tides
  • harmonic analysis
  • sea level
  • neural networks
  • tide gauge
  • tide prediction

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