An Ordinal Model of Risk Based on Mariner’s Judgement

Adan Lopez-Santander, Jonathan Lawry

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)
431 Downloads (Pure)


This paper describes a statistical method for learning and estimating the risk posed by other craft in the vicinity of a vessel and an overview of its possible spatial application, simulating how professional mariners perceive and assess such risk and using navigational data obtained from a standard integrated bridge. We propose a non-linear model for risk estimation which attempts to capture mariners' judgement. Questionnaire data has been collected that captures and quantifies mariners’ judgements of risk for craft in the vicinity, where each craft is described by measurements that can be obtained easily from the data already present in the ship's navigational equipment. The dataset has then been used for analysis, training and validating Ordered Probit models in order to obtain a computationally efficient data driven model for estimating the risk probability vector posed by other craft. Finally, we discuss how this risk model can be incorporated into decision making and path finding algorithms.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)309-324
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of the Institute of Navigation
Issue number2
Early online date14 Sep 2016
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2017


  • Craft’s risk
  • Risk estimation
  • Mariner’s knowledge
  • Collision avoidance

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