Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble

F. W. Howell; A. M. Haywood; B. L. Otto-Bliesner; F. Bragg; W. L. Chan; M. A. Chandler; C. Contoux; Y. Kamae; A. Abe-Ouchi; N. A. Rosenbloom; C. Stepanek; Z. S. Zhang

doi:10.5194/cp-12-749-2016

Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble

F. W. Howell, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W. L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, N. A. Rosenbloom, C. Stepanek, Z. S. Zhang

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

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Abstract

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	749-767
Number of pages	19
Journal	Climate of the Past
Volume	12
Issue number	3
Early online date	23 Mar 2016
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-749-2016
Publication status	Published - Mar 2016

Keywords

model intercomparison project
mid-pliocene climate
meridional
overturning circulation coupled model experimental-design
warm period ocean cover
variability thickness

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10.5194/cp-12-749-2016

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Timing, Causes and Consequences of the Decline in Pliocene pCO2
Pancost, R. D.
1/04/10 → 1/08/13
Project: Research

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title = "Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble",

abstract = "Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.",

keywords = "model intercomparison project, mid-pliocene climate, meridional, overturning circulation coupled model experimental-design, warm period ocean cover, variability thickness",

author = "Howell, {F. W.} and Haywood, {A. M.} and Otto-Bliesner, {B. L.} and F. Bragg and Chan, {W. L.} and Chandler, {M. A.} and C. Contoux and Y. Kamae and A. Abe-Ouchi and Rosenbloom, {N. A.} and C. Stepanek and Zhang, {Z. S.}",

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language = "English",

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Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble. / Howell, F. W.; Haywood, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W. L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Kamae, Y.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Stepanek, C.; Zhang, Z. S.

In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 12, No. 3, 03.2016, p. 749-767.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble

AU - Howell, F. W.

AU - Haywood, A. M.

AU - Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

AU - Bragg, F.

AU - Chan, W. L.

AU - Chandler, M. A.

AU - Contoux, C.

AU - Kamae, Y.

AU - Abe-Ouchi, A.

AU - Rosenbloom, N. A.

AU - Stepanek, C.

AU - Zhang, Z. S.

PY - 2016/3

Y1 - 2016/3

N2 - Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.

AB - Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.

KW - model intercomparison project

KW - mid-pliocene climate

KW - meridional

KW - overturning circulation coupled model experimental-design

KW - warm period ocean cover

KW - variability thickness

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DO - 10.5194/cp-12-749-2016

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

VL - 12

SP - 749

EP - 767

JO - Climate of the Past

JF - Climate of the Past

SN - 1814-9324

IS - 3

ER -

Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Timing, Causes and Consequences of the Decline in Pliocene pCO2

Cite this