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Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

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Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. / Nias, Isabel J; Cornford, Stephen L; Edwards, Tamsin L; Gourmelen, Noel; Payne, Antony J.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, No. 20, 19.11.2019, p. 11253-11260.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Nias, IJ, Cornford, SL, Edwards, TL, Gourmelen, N & Payne, AJ 2019, 'Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 46, no. 20, pp. 11253-11260. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084941

APA

Nias, I. J., Cornford, S. L., Edwards, T. L., Gourmelen, N., & Payne, A. J. (2019). Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(20), 11253-11260. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084941

Vancouver

Nias IJ, Cornford SL, Edwards TL, Gourmelen N, Payne AJ. Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters. 2019 Nov 19;46(20):11253-11260. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084941

Author

Nias, Isabel J ; Cornford, Stephen L ; Edwards, Tamsin L ; Gourmelen, Noel ; Payne, Antony J. / Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2019 ; Vol. 46, No. 20. pp. 11253-11260.

Bibtex

@article{3cf1c95d3dd249488b044f76b0718c4f,
title = "Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica",
abstract = "Ice mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams in West Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future sea‐level rise. Physically‐based ice‐flow models rely on a number of parameters that represent unobservable quantities and processes, and accounting for uncertainty in these parameters can lead to a wide range of dynamic responses. Here we perform a Bayesian calibration of a perturbed‐parameter ensemble, in which we score each ensemble member on its ability to match the magnitude and broad spatial pattern of present‐day observations of ice sheet surface elevation change. We apply an idealized melt‐rate forcing to extend the most likely simulations forward to 2200. We find that diverging grounding‐line response between ensemble members drives an exaggeration in the upper tail of the distribution of sea level rise by 2200, demonstrating that extreme future outcomes cannot be excluded.",
keywords = "sea‐level rise, Antarctica, grounding lines, ice sheet modeling, calibration",
author = "Nias, {Isabel J} and Cornford, {Stephen L} and Edwards, {Tamsin L} and Noel Gourmelen and Payne, {Antony J.}",
year = "2019",
month = "11",
day = "19",
doi = "10.1029/2019GL084941",
language = "English",
volume = "46",
pages = "11253--11260",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "20",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing uncertainty in the dynamical ice response to ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

AU - Nias, Isabel J

AU - Cornford, Stephen L

AU - Edwards, Tamsin L

AU - Gourmelen, Noel

AU - Payne, Antony J.

PY - 2019/11/19

Y1 - 2019/11/19

N2 - Ice mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams in West Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future sea‐level rise. Physically‐based ice‐flow models rely on a number of parameters that represent unobservable quantities and processes, and accounting for uncertainty in these parameters can lead to a wide range of dynamic responses. Here we perform a Bayesian calibration of a perturbed‐parameter ensemble, in which we score each ensemble member on its ability to match the magnitude and broad spatial pattern of present‐day observations of ice sheet surface elevation change. We apply an idealized melt‐rate forcing to extend the most likely simulations forward to 2200. We find that diverging grounding‐line response between ensemble members drives an exaggeration in the upper tail of the distribution of sea level rise by 2200, demonstrating that extreme future outcomes cannot be excluded.

AB - Ice mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams in West Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future sea‐level rise. Physically‐based ice‐flow models rely on a number of parameters that represent unobservable quantities and processes, and accounting for uncertainty in these parameters can lead to a wide range of dynamic responses. Here we perform a Bayesian calibration of a perturbed‐parameter ensemble, in which we score each ensemble member on its ability to match the magnitude and broad spatial pattern of present‐day observations of ice sheet surface elevation change. We apply an idealized melt‐rate forcing to extend the most likely simulations forward to 2200. We find that diverging grounding‐line response between ensemble members drives an exaggeration in the upper tail of the distribution of sea level rise by 2200, demonstrating that extreme future outcomes cannot be excluded.

KW - sea‐level rise

KW - Antarctica

KW - grounding lines

KW - ice sheet modeling

KW - calibration

U2 - 10.1029/2019GL084941

DO - 10.1029/2019GL084941

M3 - Article

VL - 46

SP - 11253

EP - 11260

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 20

ER -