Projects per year
Abstract
The traditional approach to estimating the consistency of school effects across subject areas and the stability of school effects across time is to fit separate value-added multilevel models to each subject or cohort and to correlate the resulting empirical Bayes predictions. We show that this gives biased correlations and these biases cannot be avoided by simply correlating “unshruken” or “reflated” versions of these predicted random effects. In contrast, we show that fitting a joint value-added multilevel multivariate response model simultaneously to all subjects or cohorts directly gives unbiased estimates of the correlations of interest. There is no need to correlate the resulting empirical Bayes predictions and indeed we show that this should again be avoided as the resulting correlations are also biased. We illustrate our arguments with separate applications to measuring the consistency and stability of school effects in primary and secondary school settings. However, our arguments apply more generally to other areas of application where researchers routinely interpret correlations between predicted random effects rather than estimating and interpreting these correlation directly.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 440-468 |
Number of pages | 29 |
Journal | Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics |
Volume | 43 |
Issue number | 4 |
Early online date | 9 Feb 2018 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Aug 2018 |
Research Groups and Themes
- SoE Centre for Multilevel Modelling
Keywords
- consistency
- multilevel model
- multivariate response
- school effects
- stability
- value-added
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'Avoiding Bias When Estimating the Consistency and Stability of Value-Added School Effects'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 1 Finished
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Multilevel Modelling of the Government's New School Performance Measures, 'Floor Standards' Target and 'Narrowing the Gap' Priority
Leckie, G. B. (Principal Investigator)
1/01/13 → 31/12/15
Project: Research
Profiles
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Professor George B Leckie
- School of Education - Professor of Social Statistics
- Centre for Market and Public Organisation
Person: Academic , Member