Bayesian Convergence and the Fair-Balance Paradox

Bengt Autzen*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
199 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The paper discusses Bayesian convergence when the truth is excluded from the analysis by means of a simple coin-tossing example. In the fair-balance paradox a fair coin is tossed repeatedly. A Bayesian agent, however, holds the a priori view that the coin is either biased towards heads or towards tails. As a result the truth (i.e., the coin is fair) is ignored by the agent. In this scenario the Bayesian approach tends to confirm a false model as the data size goes to infinity. I argue that the fair-balance paradox reveals an unattractive feature of the Bayesian approach to scientific inference and explore a modification of the paradox.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)253-263
Number of pages11
JournalErkenntnis
Volume83
Issue number2
Early online date28 Feb 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2018

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