Bayesian tsunami fragility modeling considering input data uncertainty

Raffaele De Risi, Katsu Goda, Nobuhito Mori, Tomohiro Yasuda

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)
304 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Empirical tsunami fragility curves are developed based on a Bayesian framework by accounting for uncertainty of input tsunami hazard data in a systematic and comprehensive manner. Three fragility modeling approaches, i.e. lognormal method, binomial logistic method, and multinomial logistic method, are considered, and are applied to extensive tsunami damage data for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. A unique aspect of this study is that uncertainty of tsunami inundation data (i.e. input hazard data in fragility modeling) is quantified by comparing two tsunami inundation/run-up datasets (one by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation of the Japanese Government and the other by the Tohoku Tsunami Joint Survey group) and is then propagated through Bayesian statistical methods to assess the effects on the tsunami fragility models. The systematic implementation of the data and methods facilitates the quantitative comparison of tsunami fragility models under different assumptions. Such comparison shows that the binomial logistic method with un-binned data is preferred among the considered models; nevertheless, further investigations related to multinomial logistic regression with un-binned data are required. Finally, the developed tsunami fragility functions are integrated with building damage-loss models to investigate the influences of different tsunami fragility curves on tsunami loss estimation. Numerical results indicate that the uncertainty of input tsunami data is not negligible (coefficient of variation of 0.25) and that neglecting the input data uncertainty leads to overestimation of the model uncertainty.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1253-1269
Number of pages17
JournalStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Volume31
Issue number5
Early online date18 Feb 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2017

Keywords

  • Bayesian regression
  • Tsunami fragility
  • Logistic regression
  • Multinomial regression
  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation
  • 2011 Tohoku earthquake

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