Behavioral Decision Analysis: Past, Present and Future

Decision Analysis has traditionally focused on the design and application of logically consistent tools to support decision makers during the process of structuring problem complexity, modeling uncertainty, generating predictions, eliciting preferences and, ultimately, making better decisions. Two commonly held assumptions are that the decision maker’s cognitive belief system is fully accessible and that this system can be understood and formalized by trained analysts. However, in past years, an active line of research has emerged studying instances in which such assumptions may not hold. We aim to unite this community under the common theme of Behavioral Decision Analysis. We suggest a framework, categorizing research based on task focus (prediction or decision) and behavioral level (individual or group). Two theoretical lenses, Descriptive Behavioral Decision Research and Prescriptive Behavioral Decision Research are employed to study these issues. The chapter introduces the taxonomy and subsequent chapters of the book.