BondBERT: What we learn when assigning sentiment in the bond market

Toby Barter, Zheng Gao, Eva Christodoulaki, Jing Chen, John Cartlidge*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

Abstract

Bond markets respond differently to macroeconomic news compared to equity markets, yet most sentiment models are trained primarily on general financial or equity news data. However, bond prices often move in the opposite direction to economic optimism, making general or equity-based sentiment tools potentially misleading. We introduce BondBERT, a transformer-based language model fine-tuned on bond-specific news. BondBERT can act as the perception and reasoning component of a financial decision-support agent, providing sentiment signals that integrate with forecasting models. We propose a generalisable framework for adapting transformers to low-volatility, domain-inverse sentiment tasks by compiling and cleaning 30,000 UK bond market articles (2018-2025). BondBERT's sentiment predictions are compared against FinBERT, FinGPT, and Instruct-FinGPT using event-based correlation, up/down accuracy analyses, and LSTM forecasting across ten UK sovereign bonds. We find that BondBERT consistently produces positive correlations with bond returns, and achieves higher alignment and forecasting accuracy than the three baseline models. These results demonstrate that domain-specific sentiment adaptation better captures fixed income dynamics, bridging a gap between NLP advances and bond market analytics.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication18th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence (ICAART)
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 4 Dec 2025
Event18th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence - Barceló Marbella hotel, Marbella, Spain
Duration: 5 Mar 20267 Mar 2026
Conference number: 18
https://icaart.scitevents.org/?y=2026

Conference

Conference18th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence
Abbreviated titleICAART 2026
Country/TerritorySpain
CityMarbella
Period5/03/267/03/26
Internet address

Research Groups and Themes

  • Intelligent Systems Laboratory
  • ISL
  • Financial Engineering Lab
  • FEL

Keywords

  • BondBERT
  • Natural Language Processing
  • Bond Market
  • Financial Sentiment
  • Predictive Modelling

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