Abstract
Dam failure constitutes a grave threat to human life. However, there is
still a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on the loss of
life (L) caused by dam break in China. From the perspective of protecting human life, a new calculation method for L
occurred in dam break floods is put forward. Fourteen dam failure cases
in China are selected as the basic data by three-dimensional stratified
sampling, balancing spatial, vertical elevation and temporal
representations, as well as considering various conditions of the dam
collapse. The method includes three progressive steps: Firstly, some
impact factors of loss of life (IFL) are selected by literature survey,
i.e., severity of dam break flood (SF), population at risk (PR), understanding of dam break (UB), warning time (TW) and evacuation condition (EC). And the other IFL of weather during dam break (WB), dam break mode (MB), water storage (SW), building vulnerability (VB), dam break time (TB) and average distance from affected area to dam (DD)
are also taken into account to get a more comprehensive consideration.
According to disaster system and disaster risk, these eleven IFL are
divided into four categories. Through the improved entropy method, eight
key IFL are further selected out of the eleven. Secondly, four L modules are built based on four categories, which are L-causing factor module (M1), L-prone environment module (M2), affected body module (M3) and rescue condition module (M4).
Eventually, by using two methods of multivariate nonlinear regression
and leave-one-out cross-validation in combination with coupled four
modules, the calculation method for L
is established. Compared with the results of Graham method and D&M
method, the result of the proposed one is much closer to the actual
value and performs better in fitting effect and regional applicability.
In the application, L calculation
and consequence assessment are carried out in the example of Hengjiang
reservoir that has already broken down. At the same time, L
calculation and risk prediction are used in the analysis of Yunshan
reservoir, which is under planning. The proposed method can not only be
applied to estimate L and its rate (fL)
under various types of dam break conditions in China, but also provide a
reliable consequence assessment and prediction approach to reduce the
risk of L.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 39-57 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Journal | Natural Hazards |
Volume | 85 |
Issue number | 1 |
Early online date | 17 Sept 2016 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Jan 2017 |
Research Groups and Themes
- Water and Environmental Engineering
Keywords
- Loss of life
- Fatality
- Dam break
- Impact factors
- Module
- Calculation method
- Consequence assessment
- Risk prediction