Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways

Matthew Deakin; Sarah Sheehy; David M. Greenwood; Sara Walker; Phil C. Taylor

doi:10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624

Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways

Matthew Deakin, Sarah Sheehy, David M. Greenwood, Sara Walker, Phil C. Taylor

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work considers a method to evaluate the impact of rapid electrification of heat by utilising historic gas demand data. The work is intended to provide a data-driven complement to popular generative heat demand models, with a particular aim of informing regulators and actors in capacity markets as to how policy changes could impact on medium-Term system adequacy metrics (up to five years ahead). Results from a GB case study show that the representation of heat demand using scaled gas demand profiles increases the rate at which 1-in-20 system peaks grow by 60%, when compared to the use of scaled electricity demand profiles. Low end-use system efficiency, in terms of aggregate coefficient of performance and demand side response capabilities, are shown to potentially lead to a doubling of electrical demand-Temperature sensitivity following five years of heat demand growth.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
ISBN (Electronic)	9781728128221
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624
Publication status	Published - Aug 2020
Event	2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Liege, Belgium Duration: 18 Aug 2020 → 21 Aug 2020

Publication series

Name	2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings

Conference

Conference	2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020
Country/Territory	Belgium
City	Liege
Period	18/08/20 → 21/08/20

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council through grant no. EP/S00078X/1 (Supergen Energy Networks hub 2018). S. Sheehy is funded by an EPSRC studentship.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 IEEE.

Keywords

demand modelling
multi-vector systems
power system reliability
System adequacy

Access to Document

10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624

Handle.net

Persistent link

Cite this

Deakin, M., Sheehy, S., Greenwood, D. M., Walker, S., & Taylor, P. C. (2020). Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways. In 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings [9183624] (2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624

Deakin, Matthew ; Sheehy, Sarah ; Greenwood, David M. et al. / Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways. 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2020. (2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings).

@inproceedings{5b44d04c18fd46e198bb816d19237cf0,

title = "Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways",

abstract = "The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work considers a method to evaluate the impact of rapid electrification of heat by utilising historic gas demand data. The work is intended to provide a data-driven complement to popular generative heat demand models, with a particular aim of informing regulators and actors in capacity markets as to how policy changes could impact on medium-Term system adequacy metrics (up to five years ahead). Results from a GB case study show that the representation of heat demand using scaled gas demand profiles increases the rate at which 1-in-20 system peaks grow by 60%, when compared to the use of scaled electricity demand profiles. Low end-use system efficiency, in terms of aggregate coefficient of performance and demand side response capabilities, are shown to potentially lead to a doubling of electrical demand-Temperature sensitivity following five years of heat demand growth.",

keywords = "demand modelling, multi-vector systems, power system reliability, System adequacy",

author = "Matthew Deakin and Sarah Sheehy and Greenwood, {David M.} and Sara Walker and Taylor, {Phil C.}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council through grant no. EP/S00078X/1 (Supergen Energy Networks hub 2018). S. Sheehy is funded by an EPSRC studentship. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 IEEE.; 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 ; Conference date: 18-08-2020 Through 21-08-2020",

year = "2020",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624",

language = "English",

series = "2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings",

publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)",

booktitle = "2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings",

address = "United States",

}

Deakin, M, Sheehy, S, Greenwood, DM, Walker, S & Taylor, PC 2020, Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways. in 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings., 9183624, 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020, Liege, Belgium, 18/08/20. https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624

Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways. / Deakin, Matthew; Sheehy, Sarah; Greenwood, David M. et al.
2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2020. 9183624 (2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

TY - GEN

T1 - Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways

AU - Deakin, Matthew

AU - Sheehy, Sarah

AU - Greenwood, David M.

AU - Walker, Sara

AU - Taylor, Phil C.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council through grant no. EP/S00078X/1 (Supergen Energy Networks hub 2018). S. Sheehy is funded by an EPSRC studentship. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 IEEE.

PY - 2020/8

Y1 - 2020/8

N2 - The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work considers a method to evaluate the impact of rapid electrification of heat by utilising historic gas demand data. The work is intended to provide a data-driven complement to popular generative heat demand models, with a particular aim of informing regulators and actors in capacity markets as to how policy changes could impact on medium-Term system adequacy metrics (up to five years ahead). Results from a GB case study show that the representation of heat demand using scaled gas demand profiles increases the rate at which 1-in-20 system peaks grow by 60%, when compared to the use of scaled electricity demand profiles. Low end-use system efficiency, in terms of aggregate coefficient of performance and demand side response capabilities, are shown to potentially lead to a doubling of electrical demand-Temperature sensitivity following five years of heat demand growth.

AB - The decarbonisation of heat in developed economies represents a significant challenge, with increased penetration of electrical heating technologies potentially leading to unprecedented increases in peak electricity demand. This work considers a method to evaluate the impact of rapid electrification of heat by utilising historic gas demand data. The work is intended to provide a data-driven complement to popular generative heat demand models, with a particular aim of informing regulators and actors in capacity markets as to how policy changes could impact on medium-Term system adequacy metrics (up to five years ahead). Results from a GB case study show that the representation of heat demand using scaled gas demand profiles increases the rate at which 1-in-20 system peaks grow by 60%, when compared to the use of scaled electricity demand profiles. Low end-use system efficiency, in terms of aggregate coefficient of performance and demand side response capabilities, are shown to potentially lead to a doubling of electrical demand-Temperature sensitivity following five years of heat demand growth.

KW - demand modelling

KW - multi-vector systems

KW - power system reliability

KW - System adequacy

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091344825&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624

DO - 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624

M3 - Conference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

AN - SCOPUS:85091344825

T3 - 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings

BT - 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings

PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)

T2 - 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020

Y2 - 18 August 2020 through 21 August 2020

ER -

Deakin M, Sheehy S, Greenwood DM, Walker S, Taylor PC. Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways. In 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). 2020. 9183624. (2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2020 - Proceedings). doi: 10.1109/PMAPS47429.2020.9183624

Calculations of System Adequacy Considering Heat Transition Pathways

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

Keywords

Access to Document

Handle.net

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this