Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

RM Gladstone, V Lee, JC Rougier, AJ Payne, H Hellmer, A Le Brocq, A Shepherd, TL Edwards, J Gregory, S L Cornford

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

61 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.
Translated title of the contributionCalibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)191 - 199
Number of pages9
JournalEarth and Planetary Science Letters
Volume333-334
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2012

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