Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

RM Gladstone; V Lee; JC Rougier; AJ Payne; H Hellmer; A Le Brocq; A Shepherd; TL Edwards; J Gregory; S L Cornford

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

RM Gladstone
, V Lee
, JC Rougier
, AJ Payne
, H Hellmer
, A Le Brocq
, A Shepherd
, TL Edwards
, J Gregory
, S L Cornford

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

77 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

Translated title of the contribution	Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	191 - 199
Number of pages	9
Journal	Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Volume	333-334
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022
Publication status	Published - Apr 2012

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10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12001896

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UNDERSTANDING CONTEMPORARY CHANGE IN THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET
Payne, A. J. (Principal Investigator)
1/04/07 → 1/01/12
Project: Research

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@article{bbf3bf6509b24c52a40ac2be9a181433,

title = "Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model",

abstract = "A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B {\textquoteleft}business as usual{\textquoteright} emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95\% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.",

author = "RM Gladstone and V Lee and JC Rougier and AJ Payne and H Hellmer and \{Le Brocq\}, A and A Shepherd and TL Edwards and J Gregory and Cornford, \{S L\}",

year = "2012",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022",

language = "English",

volume = "333-334",

pages = "191 -- 199",

journal = "Earth and Planetary Science Letters",

issn = "0012-821X",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

AU - Gladstone, RM

AU - Lee, V

AU - Rougier, JC

AU - Payne, AJ

AU - Hellmer, H

AU - Le Brocq, A

AU - Shepherd, A

AU - Edwards, TL

AU - Gregory, J

AU - Cornford, S L

PY - 2012/4

Y1 - 2012/4

N2 - A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

AB - A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

U2 - 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

DO - 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

SN - 0012-821X

VL - 333-334

SP - 191

EP - 199

JO - Earth and Planetary Science Letters

JF - Earth and Planetary Science Letters

ER -

Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

Abstract

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UNDERSTANDING CONTEMPORARY CHANGE IN THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET

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