Cardiovascular disease risk assessment in older women - can we improve on Framingham? British Women's Heart and Health prospective cohort study

MT May, DA Lawlor, PM Brindle, R Patel, S Ebrahim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

61 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: To develop a cardiovascular risk assessment tool that is feasible and easy to use in primary care (general practice (GP) model). Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: 23 towns in the United Kingdom. Participants: 3582 women aged 60 to 79 years who were free of coronary heart disease (CHD) at entry into the British Women’s Heart and Health Study. Main outcome measures: Predictive performance of a GP model compared with the standard Framingham model for both CHD and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results: The Framingham tool predicted CHD events over 5 years accurately (predicted 5.7%, observed 5.5%) but overpredicted CVD events (predicted 10.5%, observed 6.8%). In higher-risk groups, Framingham overpredicted both CHD and CVD events and was poorly calibrated for this cohort. Including C-reactive protein and fibrinogen with standard Framingham risk factors did not improve discrimination of the model. The GP model, which used age, systolic blood pressure, smoking habit and self-rated health (all of which can be easily obtained in one surgery visit) performed as well as the Framingham risk tool: area under the receiver operating curve discrimination statistic was 0.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62 to 0.70) for CHD and 0.67 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.71) for CVD compared with 0.65 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.68) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.69) for the corresponding Framingham models. Conclusions: An alternative risk assessment based on only a simple routine examination and a small number of pertinent questions may be more useful in the primary care setting. This model appears to perform well but needs to be tested in different populations.
Translated title of the contributionCardiovascular disease risk assessment in older women - can we improve on Framingham? British Women's Heart and Health prospective cohort study
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1396 - 1401
Number of pages6
JournalHeart
Volume92 (10)
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2006

Bibliographical note

Publisher: BMJ Group

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