Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Callum J. Macgregor; Chris D. Thomas; David B. Roy; Mark A. Beaumont; James R. Bell; Tom Brereton; Jon R. Bridle; Calvin Dytham; Richard Fox; Karl Gotthard; Ary A. Hoffmann; Geoff Martin; Ian Middlebrook; Sӧren Nylin; Philip J. Platts; Rita Rasteiro; Ilik J. Saccheri; Romain Villoutreix; Christopher W. Wheat; Jane K. Hill

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Callum J. Macgregor^*, Chris D. Thomas, David B. Roy, Mark A. Beaumont, James R. Bell, Tom Brereton, Jon R. Bridle, Calvin Dytham, Richard Fox, Karl Gotthard, Ary A. Hoffmann, Geoff Martin, Ian Middlebrook, Sӧren Nylin, Philip J. Platts, Rita Rasteiro, Ilik J. Saccheri, Romain Villoutreix, Christopher W. Wheat, Jane K. Hill

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

Original language	English
Article number	4455 (2019)
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w
Publication status	Published - 24 Oct 2019

Keywords

conservation biology
phenology
population dynamics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

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Macgregor, C. J., Thomas, C. D., Roy, D. B., Beaumont, M. A., Bell, J. R., Brereton, T., Bridle, J. R., Dytham, C., Fox, R., Gotthard, K., Hoffmann, A. A., Martin, G., Middlebrook, I., Nylin, S., Platts, P. J., Rasteiro, R., Saccheri, I. J., Villoutreix, R., Wheat, C. W., & Hill, J. K. (2019). Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year. Nature Communications, 10, Article 4455 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

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title = "Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year",

abstract = "Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species{\textquoteright} life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.",

keywords = "conservation biology, phenology, population dynamics",

author = "Macgregor, {Callum J.} and Thomas, {Chris D.} and Roy, {David B.} and Beaumont, {Mark A.} and Bell, {James R.} and Tom Brereton and Bridle, {Jon R.} and Calvin Dytham and Richard Fox and Karl Gotthard and Hoffmann, {Ary A.} and Geoff Martin and Ian Middlebrook and Sӧren Nylin and Platts, {Philip J.} and Rita Rasteiro and Saccheri, {Ilik J.} and Romain Villoutreix and Wheat, {Christopher W.} and Hill, {Jane K.}",

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Macgregor, CJ, Thomas, CD, Roy, DB, Beaumont, MA, Bell, JR, Brereton, T, Bridle, JR, Dytham, C, Fox, R, Gotthard, K, Hoffmann, AA, Martin, G, Middlebrook, I, Nylin, S, Platts, PJ, Rasteiro, R, Saccheri, IJ, Villoutreix, R, Wheat, CW & Hill, JK 2019, 'Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year', Nature Communications, vol. 10, 4455 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

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AU - Macgregor, Callum J.

AU - Thomas, Chris D.

AU - Roy, David B.

AU - Beaumont, Mark A.

AU - Bell, James R.

AU - Brereton, Tom

AU - Bridle, Jon R.

AU - Dytham, Calvin

AU - Fox, Richard

AU - Gotthard, Karl

AU - Hoffmann, Ary A.

AU - Martin, Geoff

AU - Middlebrook, Ian

AU - Nylin, Sӧren

AU - Platts, Philip J.

AU - Rasteiro, Rita

AU - Saccheri, Ilik J.

AU - Villoutreix, Romain

AU - Wheat, Christopher W.

AU - Hill, Jane K.

PY - 2019/10/24

Y1 - 2019/10/24

N2 - Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

AB - Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

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JO - Nature Communications

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ER -

Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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Understanding evolutionary limits to climate responses

Cite this

Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Handle.net

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

Understanding evolutionary limits to climate responses

Cite this