Climate warming drives population trajectories of freshwater fish

Climate change has emerged as a key threat to biodiversity, leading to broad-scale shifts in distributions of marine and terrestrial species as they attempt to track thermally suitable habitat. By contrast, our understanding of climate responses of freshwater species is relatively undeveloped, limiting our knowledge of whether projected warming will lead to freshwater biodiversity loss. Here, we linked a multicontinental database of riverine fish population abundance time series collected from 1958 to 2019 to temperature data from the same period. Across the sampled localities, waters warmed by 0.21 °C per decade (annual maximum of monthly temperatures). We tested whether fish responded to this change by i) increasing abundance at the cooler poleward limit of species distributions—predicted if warming has opened new opportunities—and ii) decreasing abundance toward the equatorward limit of distributions—predicted if temperatures have exceeded tolerance thresholds. We found that observed population trends were consistent with both of these expected patterns from climatic warming and that the trends were more pronounced in time series covering the longer time periods of 30+ y. The responses consistent with climate change were most evident in species with larger body sizes, higher trophic levels, river–sea migratory behavior, and more widespread distributions. Moreover, positive abundance responses to warming were more likely at higher altitudes where conditions tend to be cooler. These findings indicate that projected future warming will likely lead to widespread shifts in riverine community structure, including abundance declines at the trailing edge of species distributions.