Projects per year
Abstract
Recently, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has become the main source of barystatic sea-level rise1,2. The increase in the GrIS melt is linked to anticyclonic circulation anomalies, a reduction in cloud cover and enhanced warm-air advection3–7. The Climate Model Intercomparison Project fifth phase (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) do not capture recent circulation dynamics; therefore, regional climate models (RCMs) driven by GCMs still show significant uncertainties in future GrIS sea-level contribution, even within one emission scenario5,8–10. Here, we use the RCM Modèle Atmosphèrique Règional to show that the modelled cloud water phase is the main source of disagreement among future GrIS melt projections. We show that, in the current climate, anticyclonic circulation results in more melting than under a neutral-circulation regime. However, we find that the GrIS longwave cloud radiative effect is extremely sensitive to the modelled cloud liquid-water path, which explains melt anomalies of +378 Gt yr–1 (+1.04 mm yr–1 global sea level equivalent) in a +2 °C-warmer climate with a neutral-circulation regime (equivalent to 21% more melt than under anticyclonic circulation). The discrepancies between modelled cloud properties within a high-emission scenario introduce larger uncertainties in projected melt volumes than the difference in melt between low- and high-emission scenarios11.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 523-528 |
Number of pages | 6 |
Journal | Nature Climate Change |
Volume | 9 |
Issue number | 7 |
Early online date | 24 Jun 2019 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Jul 2019 |
Structured keywords
- GlobalMass
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Projects
- 2 Active
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GlobalMass: Global ice and ocean mass trends
Bates, P. D., Bingham, R. J., Chuter, S. J., Hofer, S., Llovell, W., Martin Espanol, A., Rougier, J. C., Schumacher, M., Sha, Z., Westaway, R. M., Royston, S. J., Vishwakarma, B. D., Bamber, J. L., Brady, A., Ziegler, Y., Abele, A. K. & Lehmann, F.
1/08/16 → 31/07/22
Project: Research
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Student Theses
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Clouds over Greenland: The influence of clouds on contemporary and future Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt
Author: Hofer, S., 23 Jan 2020Supervisor: Tedstone, A. (Supervisor) & Bamber, J. (Supervisor)
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis › Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
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Profiles
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Professor Jonathan L Bamber
- School of Geographical Sciences - Professor
- Cabot Institute for the Environment
- Bristol Glaciology Centre
Person: Academic , Member, Group lead