Communicating Uncertain Climate Futures: Lessons From the Literature

There is increasing demand for information about future climate risk to inform climate change adaptation planning. However, climate change impacts are uncertain and complex, and climate information is often technical and challenging to communicate. To inform effective methods for communicating future climate information, we undertake a review of reviews of risk communication literature, with a focus on improving comprehension. We do not constrain our literature search by the type of risk or the geographical region to allow for interdisciplinary and geographical learning, but find that most reviews occur within health, and there is a bias towards North American and European studies. Four key themes were identified during the review: (1) understanding probability and uncertainty, (2) presentation of risk and probability information, (3) positive or negative framing of risk information, and (4) the process of risk communication. Understanding of probabilistic and uncertain information varies amongst not only the general public but also scientific experts, possibly due to differences in cognitive processes and familiarity with statistics. Icon arrays and bar charts were identified as improving comprehension of risk information, whilst qualitative descriptors of risk were deemed less effective than quantitative descriptions, though a combination of the two may be most optimal. Common methods of communicating climate projections (box plots and plume plots) have not been widely reviewed. Health risks have different characteristics from climate change risks and as such we identify lessons that are relevant to climate, and areas where further research is needed to inform effective climate risk communication.

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