Consequences of volcanic activity and associated risk management on human health and activity during eruption crises (Technical report for project SPeeD)

This report considers potential ash fall and lahar impacts for infrastructure in the intermediate and distal zones, identifying elements and enterprises that are at risk in the Vesuvius area. Regarding community sustainability, we include an assessment of the potential damage and consequences for exposed infrastructure that are vital to community continuation and provide suggestions for required actions that should be undertaken to ensure such continuity. The fourth section of this report has been dedicated to identifying potential impacts of ash fall on human health, particularly in the more distal regions: recent eruption crises with long‐lasting ash emissions serve to highlight the importance of such impacts. A major component of this report is concerned with the identification and quantification of likely human behaviour during an eruption crisis, as well as the consequences of such behaviour on economic rehabilitation in the Vesuvius area. Significant discussion of potential pre‐eruption scenarios at Vesuvius is presented alongside a consideration of the economic implications. One of the final sections of the report applies the findings to the potential for economic losses and includes an assessment of potential ash fall clean up costs following the reference sub‐Plinian I eruption at Vesuvius. It is anticipated that the data presented in this report may be used to inform the economic model in calculation of economic losses and economic recovery while also highlighting issues that may be associated with a future eruption crisis at Vesuvius.