After including an allowance for the gap between male and female life expectancies at birth diminishing over the past 50 years in industrialized countries, the J-value model incorporating “male catch-up” has been validated against actual UK data on life expectancy. A close correspondence has also been found between forecasts for life expectancy at birth in 35 countries made by the J-value model and those produced in a recent study that applied Bayesian model averaging to 21 demographic projection models.
|Pages (from-to)||31 – 44|
|Number of pages||14|
|Publication status||Published - 2017|