Abstract
A major trade-off of land-use change is the potential for increased risk of infectious diseases, a.o. through impacting disease vector life-cycles. Evaluating the public health implications of land-use conversions requires spatially detailed modelling linking land-use to vector ecology. Here, we estimate the impact of deforestation for oil palm cultivation on the number of life-cycle completions of Aedes albopictus via its impact on local microclimates. We apply a recently developed mechanistic phenology model to a fine-scaled (50-m resolution) microclimate dataset that includes daily temperature, rainfall and evaporation. Results of this combined model indicate that the conversion from lowland rainforest to plantations increases suitability for A. albopictus development by 10.8%, moderated to 4.7% with oil palm growth to maturity. Deforestation followed by typical plantation planting-maturation-clearance-replanting cycles is predicted to create pulses of high development suitability. Our results highlight the need to explore sustainable land-use scenarios that resolve conflicts between agricultural and human health objectives.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 9514 |
| Journal | Scientific Reports |
| Volume | 13 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 12 Jun 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:We thank Tom Swinfield and David Coomes for their advice on the land-use classification. We thank Nichar Gregory for insightful discussions on A. albopictus ecology and microclimate dependencies in the SAFE project area. T.J. was supported by a UK NERC Independent Research Fellowship (grant: NE/S01537X/1). K.M. is supported by joint Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development [MR/R0156600/1].
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
