Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report A: Overview

Kenisha Garnett; Catarina Henriques; Joao Correa Delgado; Fiona lickorish; Hayley Shaw; George Prpich; Anna Rathe; Jason Weeks; Simon Pollard; David Forrow

Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report A: Overview

Kenisha Garnett, Catarina Henriques, Joao Correa Delgado, Fiona lickorish, Hayley Shaw, George Prpich, Anna Rathe, Jason Weeks, Simon Pollard, David Forrow

Cabot Institute for the Environment

Research output: Book/Report › Commissioned report

Abstract

What might the world look like in 2050? How can we ensure we deliver environmental outcomes for the water environment over the long term? How do we make sure we do not set off on a course of action that may fail due to factors that are not viewed as important now but that become important in the future? We cannot predict the future. Failed attempts to do so are numerous. We also know that the past is not necessarily a good predictor of the future.

We can, however, make assumptions about the future and develop an envelope of plausible futures in which the likely future will exist. This allows us to test current, developing and future actions to ensure they are effective across the range of futures and that we deliver our intended aims. This project elaborated existing socioeconomic scenarios developed by the Environment Agency and Defra for application to river basin management. Five scenarios are presented:
 uncontrolled demand
 innovation
 sustainable behaviour
 local resilience
 reference

Original language	English
Publisher	Environment Agency
Number of pages	37
Publication status	Published - 7 Sept 2017

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Garnett, K., Henriques, C., Correa Delgado, J., lickorish, F., Shaw, H., Prpich, G., Rathe, A., Weeks, J., Pollard, S., & Forrow, D. (2017). Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report A: Overview. Environment Agency. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/plausible-future-scenarios-for-the-water-environment-to-2030-and-2050

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title = "Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report A: Overview",

abstract = "What might the world look like in 2050? How can we ensure we deliver environmental outcomes for the water environment over the long term? How do we make sure we do not set off on a course of action that may fail due to factors that are not viewed as important now but that become important in the future? We cannot predict the future. Failed attempts to do so are numerous. We also know that the past is not necessarily a good predictor of the future. We can, however, make assumptions about the future and develop an envelope of plausible futures in which the likely future will exist. This allows us to test current, developing and future actions to ensure they are effective across the range of futures and that we deliver our intended aims. This project elaborated existing socioeconomic scenarios developed by the Environment Agency and Defra for application to river basin management. Five scenarios are presented: uncontrolled demand innovation sustainable behaviour local resilience reference",

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Garnett, K, Henriques, C, Correa Delgado, J, lickorish, F, Shaw, H, Prpich, G, Rathe, A, Weeks, J, Pollard, S & Forrow, D 2017, Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report A: Overview. Environment Agency. <https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/plausible-future-scenarios-for-the-water-environment-to-2030-and-2050>

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T1 - Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report A: Overview

AU - Garnett, Kenisha

AU - Henriques, Catarina

AU - Correa Delgado, Joao

AU - lickorish, Fiona

AU - Shaw, Hayley

AU - Prpich, George

AU - Rathe, Anna

AU - Weeks, Jason

AU - Pollard, Simon

AU - Forrow, David

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N2 - What might the world look like in 2050? How can we ensure we deliver environmental outcomes for the water environment over the long term? How do we make sure we do not set off on a course of action that may fail due to factors that are not viewed as important now but that become important in the future? We cannot predict the future. Failed attempts to do so are numerous. We also know that the past is not necessarily a good predictor of the future. We can, however, make assumptions about the future and develop an envelope of plausible futures in which the likely future will exist. This allows us to test current, developing and future actions to ensure they are effective across the range of futures and that we deliver our intended aims. This project elaborated existing socioeconomic scenarios developed by the Environment Agency and Defra for application to river basin management. Five scenarios are presented: uncontrolled demand innovation sustainable behaviour local resilience reference

AB - What might the world look like in 2050? How can we ensure we deliver environmental outcomes for the water environment over the long term? How do we make sure we do not set off on a course of action that may fail due to factors that are not viewed as important now but that become important in the future? We cannot predict the future. Failed attempts to do so are numerous. We also know that the past is not necessarily a good predictor of the future. We can, however, make assumptions about the future and develop an envelope of plausible futures in which the likely future will exist. This allows us to test current, developing and future actions to ensure they are effective across the range of futures and that we deliver our intended aims. This project elaborated existing socioeconomic scenarios developed by the Environment Agency and Defra for application to river basin management. Five scenarios are presented: uncontrolled demand innovation sustainable behaviour local resilience reference

M3 - Commissioned report

BT - Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report A: Overview

PB - Environment Agency

ER -

Delivering sustainable river basin management: plausible future scenarios for the water environment to 2030 & 2050. Report A: Overview

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