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Does “When” Really Feel More Certain than “If”? Two failures to replicate Ballard and Lewandowsky (2015)

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Does “When” Really Feel More Certain than “If”? Two failures to replicate Ballard and Lewandowsky (2015). / Sleeth-Keppler, David; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Ballard, Timothy; Myers, Teresa A; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward.

In: Royal Society Open Science, Vol. 6, No. 7, 10.07.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Sleeth-Keppler, D, Lewandowsky, S, Ballard, T, Myers, TA, Roser-Renouf, C & Maibach, E 2019, 'Does “When” Really Feel More Certain than “If”? Two failures to replicate Ballard and Lewandowsky (2015)', Royal Society Open Science, vol. 6, no. 7. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180475

APA

Sleeth-Keppler, D., Lewandowsky, S., Ballard, T., Myers, T. A., Roser-Renouf, C., & Maibach, E. (2019). Does “When” Really Feel More Certain than “If”? Two failures to replicate Ballard and Lewandowsky (2015). Royal Society Open Science, 6(7). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180475

Vancouver

Sleeth-Keppler D, Lewandowsky S, Ballard T, Myers TA, Roser-Renouf C, Maibach E. Does “When” Really Feel More Certain than “If”? Two failures to replicate Ballard and Lewandowsky (2015). Royal Society Open Science. 2019 Jul 10;6(7). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.180475

Author

Sleeth-Keppler, David ; Lewandowsky, Stephan ; Ballard, Timothy ; Myers, Teresa A ; Roser-Renouf, Connie ; Maibach, Edward. / Does “When” Really Feel More Certain than “If”? Two failures to replicate Ballard and Lewandowsky (2015). In: Royal Society Open Science. 2019 ; Vol. 6, No. 7.

Bibtex

@article{341996f9342f4079a0d361214f2a477d,
title = "Does “When” Really Feel More Certain than “If”?: Two failures to replicate Ballard and Lewandowsky (2015)",
abstract = "We report on two independent failures to conceptually replicate findings by Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)), who showed that certainty in, and concern about, projected public health issues (e.g. impacts of climate change) depend on how uncertain information is presented. Specifically, compared to a projected range of outcomes (e.g. a global rise in temperature between 1.6°C and 2.4°C) by a certain point in time (the year 2065), Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)) showed that focusing people on a certain outcome (a global rise in temperature of at least 2°C) by an uncertain time-frame (the years 2054–2083) increases certainty in the outcome, and concern about its implications. Based on two new studies that showed a null effect between the two presentation formats, however, we recommend treating the projection statements featured in these studies as equivalent, and we encourage investigators to find alternative ways to improve on existing formats to communicate uncertain information about future events.",
keywords = "communication, climate change, uncertainty, replication",
author = "David Sleeth-Keppler and Stephan Lewandowsky and Timothy Ballard and Myers, {Teresa A} and Connie Roser-Renouf and Edward Maibach",
year = "2019",
month = "7",
day = "10",
doi = "10.1098/rsos.180475",
language = "English",
volume = "6",
journal = "Royal Society Open Science",
issn = "2054-5703",
publisher = "The Royal Society",
number = "7",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Does “When” Really Feel More Certain than “If”?

T2 - Two failures to replicate Ballard and Lewandowsky (2015)

AU - Sleeth-Keppler, David

AU - Lewandowsky, Stephan

AU - Ballard, Timothy

AU - Myers, Teresa A

AU - Roser-Renouf, Connie

AU - Maibach, Edward

PY - 2019/7/10

Y1 - 2019/7/10

N2 - We report on two independent failures to conceptually replicate findings by Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)), who showed that certainty in, and concern about, projected public health issues (e.g. impacts of climate change) depend on how uncertain information is presented. Specifically, compared to a projected range of outcomes (e.g. a global rise in temperature between 1.6°C and 2.4°C) by a certain point in time (the year 2065), Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)) showed that focusing people on a certain outcome (a global rise in temperature of at least 2°C) by an uncertain time-frame (the years 2054–2083) increases certainty in the outcome, and concern about its implications. Based on two new studies that showed a null effect between the two presentation formats, however, we recommend treating the projection statements featured in these studies as equivalent, and we encourage investigators to find alternative ways to improve on existing formats to communicate uncertain information about future events.

AB - We report on two independent failures to conceptually replicate findings by Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)), who showed that certainty in, and concern about, projected public health issues (e.g. impacts of climate change) depend on how uncertain information is presented. Specifically, compared to a projected range of outcomes (e.g. a global rise in temperature between 1.6°C and 2.4°C) by a certain point in time (the year 2065), Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)) showed that focusing people on a certain outcome (a global rise in temperature of at least 2°C) by an uncertain time-frame (the years 2054–2083) increases certainty in the outcome, and concern about its implications. Based on two new studies that showed a null effect between the two presentation formats, however, we recommend treating the projection statements featured in these studies as equivalent, and we encourage investigators to find alternative ways to improve on existing formats to communicate uncertain information about future events.

KW - communication

KW - climate change

KW - uncertainty

KW - replication

U2 - 10.1098/rsos.180475

DO - 10.1098/rsos.180475

M3 - Article

VL - 6

JO - Royal Society Open Science

JF - Royal Society Open Science

SN - 2054-5703

IS - 7

ER -