Abstract
We report on two independent failures to conceptually replicate findings by Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)), who showed that certainty in, and concern about, projected public health issues (e.g. impacts of climate change) depend on how uncertain information is presented. Specifically, compared to a projected range of outcomes (e.g. a global rise in temperature between 1.6°C and 2.4°C) by a certain point in time (the year 2065), Ballard & Lewandowsky (Ballard and Lewandowsky 2015 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A373, 20140464 (doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0464)) showed that focusing people on a certain outcome (a global rise in temperature of at least 2°C) by an uncertain time-frame (the years 2054–2083) increases certainty in the outcome, and concern about its implications. Based on two new studies that showed a null effect between the two presentation formats, however, we recommend treating the projection statements featured in these studies as equivalent, and we encourage investigators to find alternative ways to improve on existing formats to communicate uncertain information about future events.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Royal Society Open Science |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 10 Jul 2019 |
Research Groups and Themes
- Memory
- TeDCog
Keywords
- communication
- climate change
- uncertainty
- replication
Access to Document
- Full-text PDF (final published version)
This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via The Royal Society at https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.180475 . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.