Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

Edward  Byers; Gemma R Coxon; Jim E Freer; Jim W. Hall

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2

Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

Edward Byers^*
, Gemma R Coxon
, Jim E Freer
, Jim W. Hall

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

100 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain’s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29–66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.

Original language	English
Article number	2239 (2020)
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2
Publication status	Published - 7 May 2020

Bibliographical note

The acceptance date for this record is provisional and based upon the month of publication for the article.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 6 Clean Water and Sanitation
SDG 13 Climate Action

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Byers_et_al_Drought_Electricity_DECIPHeRFlowSims
Coxon, G. (Creator) & Freer, J. E. (Contributor), University of Bristol, 5 Oct 2019
DOI: 10.5523/bris.1ojfuekso3i422qmp2s8jb02p4, http://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/1ojfuekso3i422qmp2s8jb02p4
Dataset

Professor Gemma Coxon
- Gemma.Coxonbristol.acuk
- School of Geographical Sciences - Professor of Hydrology
- Cabot Institute for the Environment
Person: Academic , Member

Cite this

@article{82622fbd35014a7eb249a09808ac54dd,

title = "Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain",

abstract = "The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain{\textquoteright}s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50\% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29–66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20\% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.",

author = "Edward Byers and Coxon, \{Gemma R\} and Freer, \{Jim E\} and Hall, \{Jim W.\}",

note = "The acceptance date for this record is provisional and based upon the month of publication for the article. ",

year = "2020",

month = may,

day = "7",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2",

language = "English",

volume = "11",

journal = "Nature Communications",

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T1 - Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

AU - Byers, Edward

AU - Coxon, Gemma R

AU - Freer, Jim E

AU - Hall, Jim W.

N1 - The acceptance date for this record is provisional and based upon the month of publication for the article.

PY - 2020/5/7

Y1 - 2020/5/7

N2 - The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain’s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29–66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.

AB - The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain’s power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29–66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2

DO - 10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 32382016

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 11

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

M1 - 2239 (2020)

ER -

Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

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Datasets

Byers_et_al_Drought_Electricity_DECIPHeRFlowSims

Profiles

Professor Gemma Coxon

Cite this