Dynamic modeling of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) transmission: issues in structural uncertainty

Anna M Foss; Peter T Vickerman; Zaid Chalabi; Philippe Mayaud; Michel Alary; Charlotte H Watts

doi:10.1007/s11538-008-9379-1

Dynamic modeling of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) transmission: issues in structural uncertainty

Anna M Foss, Peter T Vickerman, Zaid Chalabi, Philippe Mayaud, Michel Alary, Charlotte H Watts

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

29 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The sexually transmitted infection (STI) Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is of public health concern because it is a very common frequently unrecognized lifelong infection, which may facilitate HIV transmission. Within HIV/STI modeling, structural uncertainty has received less attention than parametric uncertainty. By merging the compartments of a "complex" model, a "simple" HSV-2 model is developed. Sexual interactions between female sex workers (FSWs) and clients are modeled using data from India. Latin Hypercube Sampling selects from parameter distributions and both models are run for each of the 10,000 parameter sets generated. Outputs are compared (except for 2,450 unrealistic simulations). The simple model is a good approximation to the complex model once the HSV-2 epidemic has reached 60% of the equilibrium prevalence (95% of the 7,550 runs produced

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	720-49
Number of pages	30
Journal	Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Volume	71
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-008-9379-1
Publication status	Published - Apr 2009

Keywords

Computer Simulation
Female
Herpes Genitalis
Herpesvirus 2, Human
Humans
India
Male
Models, Biological
Models, Statistical

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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title = "Dynamic modeling of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) transmission: issues in structural uncertainty",

abstract = "The sexually transmitted infection (STI) Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is of public health concern because it is a very common frequently unrecognized lifelong infection, which may facilitate HIV transmission. Within HIV/STI modeling, structural uncertainty has received less attention than parametric uncertainty. By merging the compartments of a {"}complex{"} model, a {"}simple{"} HSV-2 model is developed. Sexual interactions between female sex workers (FSWs) and clients are modeled using data from India. Latin Hypercube Sampling selects from parameter distributions and both models are run for each of the 10,000 parameter sets generated. Outputs are compared (except for 2,450 unrealistic simulations). The simple model is a good approximation to the complex model once the HSV-2 epidemic has reached 60% of the equilibrium prevalence (95% of the 7,550 runs produced ",

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T1 - Dynamic modeling of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) transmission

T2 - issues in structural uncertainty

AU - Foss, Anna M

AU - Vickerman, Peter T

AU - Chalabi, Zaid

AU - Mayaud, Philippe

AU - Alary, Michel

AU - Watts, Charlotte H

PY - 2009/4

Y1 - 2009/4

N2 - The sexually transmitted infection (STI) Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is of public health concern because it is a very common frequently unrecognized lifelong infection, which may facilitate HIV transmission. Within HIV/STI modeling, structural uncertainty has received less attention than parametric uncertainty. By merging the compartments of a "complex" model, a "simple" HSV-2 model is developed. Sexual interactions between female sex workers (FSWs) and clients are modeled using data from India. Latin Hypercube Sampling selects from parameter distributions and both models are run for each of the 10,000 parameter sets generated. Outputs are compared (except for 2,450 unrealistic simulations). The simple model is a good approximation to the complex model once the HSV-2 epidemic has reached 60% of the equilibrium prevalence (95% of the 7,550 runs produced

AB - The sexually transmitted infection (STI) Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is of public health concern because it is a very common frequently unrecognized lifelong infection, which may facilitate HIV transmission. Within HIV/STI modeling, structural uncertainty has received less attention than parametric uncertainty. By merging the compartments of a "complex" model, a "simple" HSV-2 model is developed. Sexual interactions between female sex workers (FSWs) and clients are modeled using data from India. Latin Hypercube Sampling selects from parameter distributions and both models are run for each of the 10,000 parameter sets generated. Outputs are compared (except for 2,450 unrealistic simulations). The simple model is a good approximation to the complex model once the HSV-2 epidemic has reached 60% of the equilibrium prevalence (95% of the 7,550 runs produced

KW - Computer Simulation

KW - Female

KW - Herpes Genitalis

KW - Herpesvirus 2, Human

KW - Humans

KW - India

KW - Male

KW - Models, Biological

KW - Models, Statistical

U2 - 10.1007/s11538-008-9379-1

DO - 10.1007/s11538-008-9379-1

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

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SN - 0092-8240

VL - 71

SP - 720

EP - 749

JO - Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

JF - Bulletin of Mathematical Biology

IS - 3

ER -

Dynamic modeling of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) transmission: issues in structural uncertainty

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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