Dynamic modeling of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) transmission: issues in structural uncertainty

Anna M Foss, Peter T Vickerman, Zaid Chalabi, Philippe Mayaud, Michel Alary, Charlotte H Watts

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The sexually transmitted infection (STI) Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is of public health concern because it is a very common frequently unrecognized lifelong infection, which may facilitate HIV transmission. Within HIV/STI modeling, structural uncertainty has received less attention than parametric uncertainty. By merging the compartments of a "complex" model, a "simple" HSV-2 model is developed. Sexual interactions between female sex workers (FSWs) and clients are modeled using data from India. Latin Hypercube Sampling selects from parameter distributions and both models are run for each of the 10,000 parameter sets generated. Outputs are compared (except for 2,450 unrealistic simulations). The simple model is a good approximation to the complex model once the HSV-2 epidemic has reached 60% of the equilibrium prevalence (95% of the 7,550 runs produced
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)720-49
Number of pages30
JournalBulletin of Mathematical Biology
Volume71
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2009

Keywords

  • Computer Simulation
  • Female
  • Herpes Genitalis
  • Herpesvirus 2, Human
  • Humans
  • India
  • Male
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical

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