Projects per year
Abstract
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation. Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be encountered frequently in the future.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Article number | 13190 |
Number of pages | 9 |
Journal | Scientific Reports |
Volume | 5 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 21 Aug 2015 |
Research Groups and Themes
- Engineering Mathematics Research Group
Keywords
- Applied mathematics
- Complex networks
- Nonlinear phenomena
- Phase transitions
- Critical phenomena
Fingerprint
Dive into the research topics of 'Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 1 Finished