Ebola Virus Disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review

Rebecca K. Nash; Sangeeta Bhatia; Christian Morgenstern; Patrick Doohan; David Jorgensen; Kelly McCain; Ruth McCabe; Dariya Nikitin; Alpha Forna; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Joseph T. Hicks; Richard Sheppard; Tristan Naidoo; Sabine L. van Elsland; Cyril Geismar; Thomas Rawson; Sequoia Leuba; Jack Wardle; Isobel Routledge; Keith Fraser; Natsuko Imai-Eaton; Anne Cori; H Juliette T Unwin

doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00374-8

Ebola Virus Disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review

Rebecca K. Nash, Sangeeta Bhatia, Christian Morgenstern, Patrick Doohan, David Jorgensen, Kelly McCain, Ruth McCabe, Dariya Nikitin, Alpha Forna, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Joseph T. Hicks, Richard Sheppard, Tristan Naidoo, Sabine L. van Elsland, Cyril Geismar, Thomas Rawson, Sequoia Leuba, Jack Wardle, Isobel Routledge, Keith FraserNatsuko Imai-Eaton, Anne Cori, H Juliette T Unwin^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

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Abstract

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) poses a recurring risk to human health. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of EVD transmission models and parameters published prior to 7th July 2023 from PubMed and Web of Science. Two people screened each abstract and full text. Papers were extracted using a bespoke Access database, 10% were double extracted. We extracted 1,280 parameters and 295 models from 522 papers. Basic reproduction number estimates were highly variable as were effective reproduction numbers, likely reflecting spatiotemporal variability in interventions. Random effect estimates were 15.4 days (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 13.2-17.5) for the serial interval, 8.5 (95% CI 7.7-9.2) for the incubation period, 9.3 (95% CI 8.5-10.1) for the symptom-onset-to-death delay and 13.0 (95% CI 10.4-15.7) for symptom-onset-to-recovery. Common effect estimates were similar albeit with narrower CIs. Case fatality ratio estimates were generally high but highly variable, which could reflect heterogeneity in underlying risk factors. While a significant body of literature exists on EVD models and epidemiological parameter estimates, many of these studies focus on the West African Ebola epidemic and are primarily associated with Zaire Ebola virus. This leaves a critical gap in our knowledgeregarding other Ebola virus species and outbreak contexts.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	e762-e773
Number of pages	12
Journal	The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Volume	24
Issue number	12
Early online date	7 Aug 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00374-8
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2024

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© 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

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This is the accepted author manuscript (AAM) of the article which has been made Open Access under the University of Bristol's Scholarly Works Policy. The final published version (Version of Record) can be found on the publisher's website. The copyright of any third-party content, such as images, remains with the copyright holder.
Accepted author manuscript, 7.54 MBLicence: CC BY

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Nash, R. K., Bhatia, S., Morgenstern, C., Doohan, P., Jorgensen, D., McCain, K., McCabe, R., Nikitin, D., Forna, A., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Hicks, J. T., Sheppard, R., Naidoo, T., Elsland, S. L. V., Geismar, C., Rawson, T., Leuba, S., Wardle, J., Routledge, I., ... Unwin, H. J. T. (2024). Ebola Virus Disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 24(12), e762-e773. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00374-8

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title = "Ebola Virus Disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review",

abstract = "Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) poses a recurring risk to human health. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of EVD transmission models and parameters published prior to 7th July 2023 from PubMed and Web of Science. Two people screened each abstract and full text. Papers were extracted using a bespoke Access database, 10\% were double extracted. We extracted 1,280 parameters and 295 models from 522 papers. Basic reproduction number estimates were highly variable as were effective reproduction numbers, likely reflecting spatiotemporal variability in interventions. Random effect estimates were 15.4 days (95\% Confidence Interval (CI) 13.2-17.5) for the serial interval, 8.5 (95\% CI 7.7-9.2) for the incubation period, 9.3 (95\% CI 8.5-10.1) for the symptom-onset-to-death delay and 13.0 (95\% CI 10.4-15.7) for symptom-onset-to-recovery. Common effect estimates were similar albeit with narrower CIs. Case fatality ratio estimates were generally high but highly variable, which could reflect heterogeneity in underlying risk factors. While a significant body of literature exists on EVD models and epidemiological parameter estimates, many of these studies focus on the West African Ebola epidemic and are primarily associated with Zaire Ebola virus. This leaves a critical gap in our knowledgeregarding other Ebola virus species and outbreak contexts.",

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Nash, RK, Bhatia, S, Morgenstern, C, Doohan, P, Jorgensen, D, McCain, K, McCabe, R, Nikitin, D, Forna, A, Cuomo-Dannenburg, G, Hicks, JT, Sheppard, R, Naidoo, T, Elsland, SLV, Geismar, C, Rawson, T, Leuba, S, Wardle, J, Routledge, I, Fraser, K, Imai-Eaton, N, Cori, A & Unwin, HJT 2024, 'Ebola Virus Disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review', The Lancet Infectious Diseases, vol. 24, no. 12, pp. e762-e773. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00374-8

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ebola Virus Disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters

T2 - a systematic review

AU - Nash, Rebecca K.

AU - Bhatia, Sangeeta

AU - Morgenstern, Christian

AU - Doohan, Patrick

AU - Jorgensen, David

AU - McCain, Kelly

AU - McCabe, Ruth

AU - Nikitin, Dariya

AU - Forna, Alpha

AU - Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina

AU - Hicks, Joseph T.

AU - Sheppard, Richard

AU - Naidoo, Tristan

AU - Elsland, Sabine L. van

AU - Geismar, Cyril

AU - Rawson, Thomas

AU - Leuba, Sequoia

AU - Wardle, Jack

AU - Routledge, Isobel

AU - Fraser, Keith

AU - Imai-Eaton, Natsuko

AU - Cori, Anne

AU - Unwin, H Juliette T

PY - 2024/12/1

Y1 - 2024/12/1

N2 - Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) poses a recurring risk to human health. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of EVD transmission models and parameters published prior to 7th July 2023 from PubMed and Web of Science. Two people screened each abstract and full text. Papers were extracted using a bespoke Access database, 10% were double extracted. We extracted 1,280 parameters and 295 models from 522 papers. Basic reproduction number estimates were highly variable as were effective reproduction numbers, likely reflecting spatiotemporal variability in interventions. Random effect estimates were 15.4 days (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 13.2-17.5) for the serial interval, 8.5 (95% CI 7.7-9.2) for the incubation period, 9.3 (95% CI 8.5-10.1) for the symptom-onset-to-death delay and 13.0 (95% CI 10.4-15.7) for symptom-onset-to-recovery. Common effect estimates were similar albeit with narrower CIs. Case fatality ratio estimates were generally high but highly variable, which could reflect heterogeneity in underlying risk factors. While a significant body of literature exists on EVD models and epidemiological parameter estimates, many of these studies focus on the West African Ebola epidemic and are primarily associated with Zaire Ebola virus. This leaves a critical gap in our knowledgeregarding other Ebola virus species and outbreak contexts.

AB - Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) poses a recurring risk to human health. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of EVD transmission models and parameters published prior to 7th July 2023 from PubMed and Web of Science. Two people screened each abstract and full text. Papers were extracted using a bespoke Access database, 10% were double extracted. We extracted 1,280 parameters and 295 models from 522 papers. Basic reproduction number estimates were highly variable as were effective reproduction numbers, likely reflecting spatiotemporal variability in interventions. Random effect estimates were 15.4 days (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 13.2-17.5) for the serial interval, 8.5 (95% CI 7.7-9.2) for the incubation period, 9.3 (95% CI 8.5-10.1) for the symptom-onset-to-death delay and 13.0 (95% CI 10.4-15.7) for symptom-onset-to-recovery. Common effect estimates were similar albeit with narrower CIs. Case fatality ratio estimates were generally high but highly variable, which could reflect heterogeneity in underlying risk factors. While a significant body of literature exists on EVD models and epidemiological parameter estimates, many of these studies focus on the West African Ebola epidemic and are primarily associated with Zaire Ebola virus. This leaves a critical gap in our knowledgeregarding other Ebola virus species and outbreak contexts.

U2 - 10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00374-8

DO - 10.1016/S1473-3099(24)00374-8

M3 - Review article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 39127058

SN - 1473-3099

VL - 24

SP - e762-e773

JO - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

JF - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

IS - 12

ER -

Ebola Virus Disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review

Abstract

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